债市情绪面周报（9月第1周）：股强债弱，还有多少观点看多债市？-20250908

Group 1: Report Core Views - Huaxi Securities' view: 1.80% is the short - term resistance for interest rate increase. The stock - bond seesaw is the main trading line in the bond market. In September, the bond market may break the seasonal pattern, and there are still short - term opportunities for long positions. The recent mention of treasury bond trading by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank is positive for the bond market, and the liquidity in the third and fourth quarters is generally stable. 1.80% is the resistance level for the interest rate (10 - year treasury active bond) to rise [2]. - Seller's view: Under the stock - bond comparison, the proportion of views bullish on the bond market has dropped to 21%, and those bearish account for 17%. The weighted sentiment index has declined compared to last week, with 6 bullish, 18 neutral, and 5 bearish institutions [2]. - Buyer's view: Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. The overall sentiment index of fixed - income buyers is neutral and has declined. Among them, 2 are bullish, 24 are neutral, and 3 are bearish [3]. - Treasury bond futures: The basis of T/TL has risen to a historical high, and the curve can still be steepened. Last week, the prices of treasury bond futures showed a mixed trend, with the trading volume and trading - to - holding ratio of all contracts decreasing. The basis and net basis of each main contract have generally increased, and the IRR has generally declined to a historical low. The inter - delivery spread has generally widened, and the inter - variety spread has shown a mixed trend [6]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The sentiment index has declined. The weighted index this week is 0.03, and the unweighted index has decreased by 0.1 compared to last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 21% bullish, 62% neutral, and 17% bearish [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The sentiment index has continued to decline. The weighted index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index has decreased by 0.07 compared to last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bearish view, with 7% bullish, 83% neutral, and 10% bearish [13]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - words are the stock - bond seesaw and loose funding. The stock - bond seesaw affects the adjustment range and repair rhythm of credit bonds, and loose funding boosts bond market sentiment, but the credit bond market remains in a volatile pattern [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 47% bullish and 53% neutral [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Prices have shown a mixed trend, and trading volume has decreased across the board. As of September 5, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.39 yuan, 105.59 yuan, 107.95 yuan, and 116.35 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.02 yuan, + 0.08 yuan, + 0.14 yuan, and - 0.20 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume of each contract has decreased, and the trading - to - holding ratio has also declined [23][24]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rates of 30Y treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds have all increased. On September 5, the turnover rates of 30Y treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds were 4.53%, 0.94%, and 5.30% respectively, showing increases compared to last week and Monday [34][35]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis has generally increased, and the net basis has generally widened. The IRR of the main contracts has generally declined. As of September 5, the basis, net basis, and IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts have shown corresponding changes compared to last Friday [40][43]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread has generally widened, and the inter - variety spread has shown a mixed trend. As of September 5, the inter - delivery spread of TS/TF/T/TL contracts and the inter - variety spread of 2TF - T, 3T - TL, 2TS - TF, and 4TS - T have shown corresponding changes compared to last Friday [50].