白糖周报：印泰增产预期充足叠加浆粉放松迹象，郑糖下跌兑现-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR601 contract of white sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, supported at the price of 5500 yuan [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 season in Brazil is at its peak, with a high - yield expectation. The main sugar - producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to increase production. The global sugar supply - demand pattern remains stable [3]. - Domestically, the current production and sales progress is normal, with third - party inventory and an increase in recent imports. Entering September, new sugar will be on the market, and the supply - sales pattern will remain stable. The demand side has started stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, but the market is cautious due to high prices [3]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global sugar supply pattern is expected to end, and prices may decline. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range, but pay attention to the cost support at 5500 yuan. Near the cost level, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P - 5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链操作建议 (Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions) | Participant | Behavior | Concern | Position | Hedging Instrument | Quantity | Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar Mill | Inventory Management | Fear of price decline | Long | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | | Trader | Procurement Management | Seek low - price purchase | Long | SR601C5800, SR601P5400 | 50, 50 | 31, 40 | | Trader | Inventory Management | Seek high - price sale | Long | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | | Sugar - using Enterprise | Procurement Management | Fear of price increase | Short | SR601C5800, SR601P5400 | 50, 50 | 31, 40 | | Sugar - using Enterprise | Inventory Management | High raw - material inventory, fear of price decline | Short | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | It is also recommended to follow UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales, and inventory data, and customs import data [5]. 3.2日糖周度数据汇总 (Daily Sugar Weekly Data Summary) - Futures Prices: This week, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures were 5523 yuan/ton, 5509 yuan/ton, and 5541 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price differences of - 81 yuan/ton, - 58 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton [8]. - Spot Prices: This week, the prices of Nanning, Liuzhou, and other places' white sugar decreased slightly, with Nanning down 30 yuan/ton and Liuzhou down 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 357 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [8]. - Import Costs: This week, the import costs of Brazil and Thailand decreased, with Brazil down 223.74 yuan/ton and Thailand down 231.4 yuan/ton [8]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1134 to 12782 [8]. 3.3白糖主要市场价格及价差 (Main Market Prices and Spreads of White Sugar) - ICE Raw Sugar Futures Prices: This week, raw sugar futures prices mainly declined due to expected production increases in India and Thailand and an accelerated crushing process in Brazil [13]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Prices: This week, Zhengzhou sugar futures dropped significantly, with the center of gravity moving down by nearly 100 points, affected by the decline in raw sugar prices and the relaxation of Thailand's syrup import policy [13]. - Spot Prices: This week, the white sugar spot market prices declined slightly. The prices in the main producing areas of Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, and the sales areas followed suit. The terminal sales were slow [13]. - Basis: This week, the spot price decline was less than that of futures, and the basis increased slightly. As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 357 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4国际供给 (International Supply) 3.4.1巴西生产情况 (Brazilian Production Situation) - The 2024/25 season in Brazil produced 4017 tons of sugar, a 5.3% decrease from the previous season but still a high - level output [35]. - As of the first half of August 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 2288.6 tons, a 4.67% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing [36]. - The 2025/26 season is expected to increase production, with a predicted output of about 4100 tons. The supply will remain loose, and raw sugar prices may be under pressure [37]. - In the first half of August, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 361.5 tons, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. The cane crushing volume, ATR, and sugar - making ratio all changed compared to the same period last year [47]. - As of August 29, the ethanol - gasoline ratio in Brazil was 65.79%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 15.12 cents/pound [66]. - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory was 803.0192 tons, at a relatively low level in recent years. In the first four weeks of August, the export volume was 281.39 tons, a 0.27% year - on - year increase [77]. 3.4.2印度及泰国生产情况 (Production Situation in India and Thailand) - India: In the 2024/25 season, India's sugar production was about 2610 - 2620 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery, with an estimated output of about 3490 - 3500 tons, due to favorable monsoons, increased planting areas, and a raised minimum cane purchase price [84]. - Thailand: The 2024/25 season in Thailand produced 1004.18 tons of sugar, a significant increase from the previous season. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with estimates from different institutions ranging from 1025 to 1150 tons [89]. 3.5国内供给 (Domestic Supply) - Beet Sugar Pressing: The 2025/26 season's beet sugar pressing is expected to start in mid - to late September. The estimated sugar output in Inner Mongolia may be above 70 tons, and that in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 80 tons [109]. - Sugar Production: The 2024/25 season in China produced 1116.21 tons of sugar. Guangxi produced 646.50 tons, and Yunnan produced 241.88 tons. Other regions also increased production [110]. - Supply - Demand Forecast: The August forecast from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs remained unchanged from the previous month. Extreme rainfall in some areas may affect production. Sugar consumption has recovered seasonally, and imports have increased recently but are expected to remain within the annual plan [110]. 3.6进口 (Imports) - Quota - within Imports: The annual quota - within import volume is 194.5 tons, with a 15% tariff [125]. - Out - of - Quota Imports: The out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. The import cost is affected by factors such as raw sugar prices, regional premiums, and exchange rates [125]. - Import Volume: In July 2025, the import volume was 74 tons, a significant increase from June and the same period last year. It is expected to continue increasing in the third quarter [125]. - Import Syrup and Premixed Powder: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, but there was an increase in June - July. In July, the total import volume was 15.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease [147]. 3.7销售情况 (Sales Situation) - Seasonal Demand: There are two peak demand seasons for white sugar annually: the summer cold - drink season and the Spring Festival stocking season [157]. - Recent Sales: The market is purchasing as needed, with low stocking enthusiasm. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the rigid demand has slightly increased, but the sales are still slower than last year [157]. - Sales Volume: As of August, the cumulative sales volume in Guangxi was 575.63 tons, a year - on - year increase, and the sales rate was 89.04%. In Yunnan, the cumulative sales volume was 208.23 tons, and the sales rate was 86.09% [110][160]. 3.8库存情况 (Inventory Situation) - Industrial Inventory: Industrial inventory is calculated as the cumulative production minus the cumulative sales. Usually, the inventory pressure is highest in April [163]. - Domestic De - stocking: As of August 2025, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 70.87 tons, a year - on - year decrease, and in Yunnan was 33.64 tons, a year - on - year increase. The third - party inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan also increased [164].