海外宏观周报：美国就业降温支持联储连续降息-20250908

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The recent US non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000[10] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2022, indicating a weakening labor market[10] - The job vacancy rate has declined for two consecutive months, with the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals falling below 1, suggesting that demand is weakening faster than supply[1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates has increased, with market pricing indicating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September[10][30] - Historical trends show that US stocks typically perform well during rate-cutting cycles, supporting a bullish outlook on the stock market[2] - Risks include a potential unexpected recovery in the job market and persistent inflation, which could delay the Fed's rate-cutting schedule[3][31] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Trends - Since April 2025, the US dollar index has weakened, but the difference between the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates has not significantly decreased, indicating potential appreciation expectations for the RMB[2] - Eurozone inflation is showing a steady decline, with the overall HICP year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.1% in August 2025, close to the inflation target[10]