9月初市场大幅波动点评：前两轮牛市带来的启示

Market Overview - In early September 2025, the A-share market experienced significant volatility, with the Wind All A index dropping 4.62% from September 2 to 4, erasing nearly half of August's gains[4] - The A-share market saw a rebound of 2.57% on September 5, indicating potential resilience[4] Market Analysis - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is considered a normal fluctuation following a rapid increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3800 points as of September 4[5] - In August, the Wind All A, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 10.93%, 7.97%, and 12.35%, respectively, compared to July's increases of only 4.75%, 3.74%, and 4.83%[5] Historical Context - Since 2010, the A-share market has experienced two major bull markets, with total market capitalization increasing by 147% from April 2014 to June 2015 and by 111% from January 2019 to December 2021[6] - The current market, starting from September 2024, has seen a 47% increase in total market capitalization, with only a 1% increase in the number of listed companies[6] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the A-share market is still less than 10% away from the peak valuation in 2021, with small-cap stocks closer to their 2021 highs[6] - The rolling P/E ratio (TTM) for the Wind All A index is approximately 10% below the 2021 peak, while the CSI 2000 index is about 4% below its peak, and the CSI 300 index has a gap of 20%[6] Future Outlook - The current bull market may surpass the 2021 valuation peak due to a lower increase in the number of listed companies since September 2024, suggesting potential for over 10% market capitalization growth[8] - Structural opportunities remain significant despite high volatility, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as photovoltaics, batteries, gold, rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, brokerages, and robotics[9] Risk Factors - Uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations could impact market stability[10] - Economic growth may slow down in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding expectations[10]