餐饮行业2025中报业绩综述暨2025Q4季度策略：估值洼地，只欠东风

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the restaurant industry is currently in a valuation trough, with significant recovery potential driven by demand and supply dynamics [1][6] - The tea beverage segment is leading the recovery, with major brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng showing positive growth in the first half of 2025, while Western fast food and casual dining are expected to stabilize by mid to late 2025 [1][2] - The average customer spending for leading brands has shown a year-on-year increase of 1% to 5%, indicating a stabilization trend after a two-year decline [1][2] Group 2 - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, most brands will achieve same-store sales stability or growth, aided by easing downward pressure on average spending and lower year-on-year comparison bases [2][3] - The restaurant sector is gradually returning to a net opening cycle, with tea beverage brands leading the way in new store openings, while Western fast food and casual dining brands are also expected to increase their store counts [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the second half of 2025 will be crucial for the tea beverage industry, as many franchise agreements are set to expire, potentially leading to a surge in quality supply and market opportunities for leading brands [3] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests that the restaurant sector is currently undervalued, making it an attractive investment opportunity, especially as leading brands begin to show positive same-store sales growth [6][7] - Specific companies like Hai Di Lao and Yum China are highlighted for their potential to benefit from a strong consumer recovery, with Hai Di Lao expected to see significant improvements in turnover rates and new store openings [6][7] - Other notable companies such as Gu Ming and Mi Xue are projected to maintain high growth rates due to their strong operational capabilities and market positioning [7][8]