天富期货碳酸锂日报-20250908

Carbonate Lithium Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of carbonate lithium continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 4.40% from last Friday's closing price to 7,426 yuan/ton. The market was bearish at the beginning of the week but rebounded later. Without new drivers, it's expected to remain weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the remaining 7 lithium mines in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [2]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of carbonate lithium is expected to remain weak and volatile. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [3]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, a 2% week-on-week increase. After some domestic lithium mines and salt lakes stopped production, the overall supply did not decrease due to increased imports and processing of spodumene and new domestic projects. The key is the production status of the 7 mines in Yichun after September 30 [4]. Demand - In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream enterprises' production plans are expected to increase. From August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.079 million, a 5% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month increase. The demand for energy storage batteries is also rising [5][6]. Inventory - Carbonate lithium continued to reduce inventory in August. The inventory of domestic lithium salt factories was about 30,280 tons, a 12.81% month-on-month and 14.94% year-on-year decrease [7]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a weak trend. With no significant changes in fundamentals and a balanced supply - demand increase and inventory reduction, it's expected to remain weak and volatile [8]. Polysilicon Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures rose sharply on Friday, hitting a 9% daily limit and reaching a new high of 56,735 yuan/ton, a 15.06% weekly increase. With new policies promoting the photovoltaic industry, the polysilicon market is likely to be strong and volatile [12]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of polysilicon is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [13]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of polysilicon is increasing. The output in August exceeded 130,000 tons. There are expectations of production and sales restrictions in September, but the implementation is uncertain, and future growth is expected to be limited [14]. Demand - In September, the production plan of domestic silicon wafers was raised for the first time. After the price increase, most silicon wafer enterprises increased their operating rates. The output of battery cells and photovoltaic modules in August also increased, and the September production plans are expected to continue rising [15][16][17]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a strong trend. Although the polysilicon market has fundamental pressure, with policy support, the market is likely to be strong and volatile due to significant news - related fluctuations [18].