业绩高增景气上行，估值修复空间可期

Investment Rating - The industry rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry is experiencing significant profit growth driven by active trading and a recovery in equity markets, with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 30.1% and 65.1% respectively for the first half of 2025 [1][13] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the industry reached 3.7%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][18] - The report highlights a trend of increasing concentration of profits among leading firms, with the top five firms accounting for 48% of net profits [1] Summary by Sections 1. Active Trading and Profit Growth - In the first half of 2025, 42 listed securities firms achieved total revenue and net profit of 2,518.66 billion and 1,040.17 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.1% and 65.1% [13][14] - The breakdown of revenue sources shows significant growth in brokerage and proprietary trading, with year-on-year increases of 44% and 46.9% respectively [1][13] 2. Improvement in Fee-based Businesses - The average daily trading volume of stock funds increased by 64% year-on-year, leading to substantial growth in brokerage net income [2] - Investment banking activities, particularly in the Hong Kong IPO market, showed notable recovery, contributing to improved net income for leading firms [2] 3. Significant Growth in Proprietary Investments - Listed securities firms reported a substantial increase in proprietary investment income, with an annualized return on investment reaching 4.4% [2][12] - The report indicates that alternative investments and direct investments are key areas for asset allocation among leading firms [2] 4. International Business Development - Leading firms' international subsidiaries have shown strong performance, contributing over 10% to the group's net profit, with expectations for continued activity in the Hong Kong market [2][12] 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the securities industry in 2025 is set at 2,479 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.2% [3][17] - Recommended stocks include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, focusing on firms with low valuations and high ROE [3][17]