生猪鸡蛋周报：供给高位持续施压关注旺季需求提振-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Pig Market: The upside potential for pig prices is limited, with pressure at the 15,500 price level. The supply of pigs is expected to remain high in the second half of 2025 due to the persistently high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase, the boost may be limited due to the slowdown in economic development and changes in consumer preferences. Policy disturbances and market sentiment may cause short - term strength in pig prices, but the upside is constrained by sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [3]. - Egg Market: Eggs are in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 10 - contract demand is in the decline stage after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. Overall, egg prices are expected to remain weak, and the JD2510 contract price is expected to be under pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Pig Part - Supply Analysis - Capacity and Supply: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level, leading to continuous over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply changes should be noted [11]. - Weight and Supply: The slaughter weight has rebounded as the farmers' slaughter rhythm has slowed down. With the upcoming autumn and winter peak seasons, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may rise, and the weight is expected to remain at a relatively high level [12]. - Demand Analysis - Seasonal Demand: As the weather cools down, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the slaughter volume has shown a slow growth trend. The boost from holidays should be monitored. Secondary fattening and frozen product storage can form short - term demand, but currently, the market is still cautious, and there is not much secondary fattening [25]. - Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: As of September 4, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.95 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 14.75 yuan/kg [29]. - Profit and Capacity: The breeding enterprises' profits are acceptable, and the capacity is relatively stable. The farmers are still cautious about the future market, with sow replenishment mainly for group - farm replacement and low piglet replenishment in the off - season [29]. - Policy Analysis - State Reserve Policy: The state reserve purchase and release of pork are used to regulate market supply and demand and ensure market stability. In case of excessive price drops, the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [32]. - Spread and Basis Analysis - Various spread and basis data of pig futures contracts are provided, including the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc., which can reflect the price differences between different contracts at different times [50]. Egg Part - Supply Analysis - Current Supply: The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. The inventory of laying hens has been at a high level since the second half of 2024, and the egg - laying rate has seasonally rebounded. Recently, the number of culled hens has increased, and the culling age has decreased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent [64][65]. - Future Supply Expectation: High replenishment enthusiasm since the second half of 2024 means that the number of newly - opened laying hens will be high before the third quarter of this year. With relatively limited culling, the inventory of laying hens will remain at a high level before the third quarter [64]. - Demand Analysis - Long - term and Short - term Demand: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a stable growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is good, but the overall demand support is limited [75][76]. - Price Outlook: Although the peak - season demand provides some support, the oversupply will continue to put pressure on egg prices. The rebound space is expected to be limited, and the JD2510 contract price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Cost Analysis - Due to the low feed price, the breeding cost of eggs is at a relatively low level, around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - Spread and Basis Analysis - Various spread and basis data of egg futures contracts are provided, such as the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc., which can help analyze the price differences between different contracts [93].