生猪周报：市场继续降重，猪价震荡偏弱-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 5, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 745 yuan/ton, compared with 185 yuan/ton on August 29 [2][3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [4]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The monthly spreads fluctuated and adjusted [6][9]. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [12]. - Regional Spread: The regional spread is relatively reasonable [14]. - Fat - Standard Spread: The fat - standard spread fluctuated strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will enhance the market's willingness to increase weight [16]. - Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Spread: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [18]. - Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Spread: The cost - performance of pork is average. The fresh - frozen spread of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products is inferior to that of fresh products [20]. - Breeding Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [22]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight increased this week [24]. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. In August, the sample 1 of reproductive sows from Yongyi Consulting increased by 0.02% month - on - month, and the sample scale enterprises from My steel increased by 0.01% month - on - month in July [26]. - Sow Culling Situation: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction is average [28]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In July, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in January next year [30]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [32]. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit: The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [34]. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and the impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [37].