生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250908

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view is that the futures price of live pigs will have a volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2] - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 4,437 lots today, with a position of about 78,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,550 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,355 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,365 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced the weight of pigs, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On September 4, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.5% compared with the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 14.05 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.21%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Among the futures prices, the price of the 01 contract was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton or 1.26%; the 03 contract was 13,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 0.76%; the 05 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton or 0.81%; the 07 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 0.7%; the 09 contract was 13,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 0.3%; the 11 contract was 13,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton or 1.37% [6] - The main basis in Henan was 685 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton or 45.74% compared with the previous day [6]