股指偏震荡，国债仍需等待

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Stock Index: After the short - term trading overheating risk is gradually released, the market may still need to go through a process of shock consolidation. However, from a medium - term perspective, the upward trend remains intact, and the overall judgment of a structural bull market remains unchanged [6]. - Treasury Bonds: In the short term, risk appetite continues to disrupt the bond market. Three scenarios need to be vigilant: if the equity market breaks through with heavy volume, the bond market may be under pressure; if the stock market fluctuates and consolidates, the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals and capital situation; if the equity market corrects significantly, the yield curve may decline as a whole, but for the 10 - year treasury bond to effectively break through 2.5%, incremental positive catalysts are needed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: Last week, major broad - based A - share indexes were generally under pressure, and market volatility increased significantly. Growth - style indexes had a large correction, and large - cap blue - chip and small - and medium - cap stocks also weakened [6]. - Technical Analysis: The nature of the current market rebound remains to be confirmed. Although there was a significant rise on Friday, the overall trading volume did not effectively increase, which is a concern. To confirm a technical reversal, certain conditions need to be met [6]. - Strategy Outlook: Buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: Last week, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market became looser at the beginning of the month. The yield curve flattened slightly, and treasury bond futures were affected by the rise and fall of the equity market [7]. - Technical Analysis: The upward trend of the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract T2409 was interrupted on Friday, with negative technical indicators showing weakening short - term momentum [7]. - Strategy Outlook: If the support level is effectively broken, stop losses in a timely manner. In the short term, use a band - trading strategy [7]. Key Data Tracking - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, and different industries showed different trends [11]. - Inflation: In August, the year - on - year change in the consumer price index was flat, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4%. The year - on - year decrease in the producer price index was 3.6%, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but overall, they remained sluggish [14]. - Industrial Added Value: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, mainly dragged down by the export chain [17]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: In August, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [20]. - Social Retail Sales: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%. The slowdown was mainly reflected in catering, sales of state - subsidized products, and real - estate - related consumption [23]. - Social Financing: In August, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. Although the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved, the credit increase was negative. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [26]. - Imports and Exports: In August, imports and exports were significantly stronger than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs [29]. Weekly Focus - China: Foreign exchange reserves, import and export amounts, M0/M1/M2 balances, social financing scale, CPI, and PPI year - on - year data [31]. - Japan: Revised year - on - year GDP in the second quarter at constant prices [31]. - EU: Eurozone benchmark interest rates and deposit and lending rates [31].