流动性周报：影响债市新变量出现-20250908

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market is still under pressure. If it is verified that around 1.8% is the relatively top level of the 10 - year Treasury bond and its form is lower than the first - quarter high, the logic of a bond bull market with a downward - trending yield can still be maintained. - Medium - term risk preference recovery is more reflected in the term spread premium, which may return to 50 - 60BP at the extreme. However, major asset pricing should also return to fundamentals. - The bond market in September 2025 may tend to have a weak recovery rather than a seasonal adjustment [3][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Impact of New Variables on the Bond Market - Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Operation: The expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading has risen. But the relevant meeting is a routine policy - coordination meeting rather than a signal of restart. From the perspective of renewal, there is a need for restart. The large - scale issuance of local bonds from May to August may have increased the duration pressure of large banks' portfolios. Their short - buying and long - selling behavior may be related to adjusting portfolio duration and may decrease after the issuance of special Treasury bonds and local bonds nears completion. Without significant increments, the central bank's Treasury bond trading may mainly improve expectations and sentiment rather than significantly affect short - and long - term interest rates [4][12][14]. - New Regulations on Public Offering Sales Fees: These regulations may weaken the trading attribute of public bond funds. Recently, wealth management products have frequently redeemed and subscribed to public bond funds, strengthening the latter's trading attribute. The new regulations encourage long - term holding and increase short - term redemption fees, which will change the current situation. Long - term interest - rate bond funds or interest - rate index bond funds other than ETFs may no longer be suitable as trading tools for wealth management or proprietary accounts. Public bond funds may face pressure on their liability side. Proprietary accounts may re - allocate long - duration bond assets after redemption, while wealth management accounts may prefer bond ETFs or short - duration coupon assets [5][16].