流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：国债买卖重启？

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that this collaboration will facilitate liquidity management by the central bank, even with potential increases in bond supply [2][10] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds have decreased from a peak of 2.88 trillion yuan to 2.29 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual reduction in long-term liquidity [2][10] - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen close to 20 basis points from its low, providing room for the central bank to resume government bond trading operations [2][10] Group 2 - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.951 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 97.55%, while new general bonds and special bonds have also seen significant issuance [4][18] - The report notes that the issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 679.7 billion yuan, with expectations of a noticeable decline in government bond supply starting in October [4][18] - The report identifies three opportunities for narrowing the yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds, including the potential for lower issuance rates and reduced supply [5][19] Group 3 - The liquidity in the market remains comfortable, with key money market rates such as DR001 and R001 maintaining levels between 1.31-1.36% [3][20] - The report indicates that the total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit has surged to 1.2098 trillion yuan, leading to increased pressure on renewals [3][20] - The central bank's open market operations have seen a net withdrawal of 12.047 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing liquidity management efforts [31][32] Group 4 - The report tracks government bond issuance, noting that from September 1 to September 7, national bonds issued amounted to 349.07 billion yuan, with net financing of 169.83 billion yuan [38][42] - The expected issuance of national bonds from September 8 to September 14 is 491 billion yuan, with net financing projected at 340.22 billion yuan [38][42] - Local government bonds issued during the same period are expected to total 301.67 billion yuan, with a significant portion attributed to refinancing [38][42]