长江期货贵金属周报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in August were significantly lower than expected, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, and precious metal prices continued to rebound. The impact of Trump on the Fed's independence is evident, and the results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, raising the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US tariff policy basically finalized, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and it is expected that precious metal prices will have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August CPI inflation data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The non - farm payrolls in August were significantly lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut increased. The price of US gold continued to rise. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3,640 per ounce, up 3.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,690, and the lower support level is $3,570 [6]. - The non - farm payrolls in August were significantly lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut increased. The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 4.5%, closing at $41.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $39, and the upper resistance level is $42.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in August were significantly lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, and precious metal prices continued to rebound. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said there were more reasons to cut interest rates. With the US tariff policy basically finalized, the market is worried about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August CPI inflation data to be released on Thursday [11]. - Strategy suggestion: Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 790 - 835 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 9100 - 10000 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only some data charts are presented, including real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US dollar index, US Treasury yields (2 - year, 10 - year), spread (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [16][18][23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Economic Data | Economic Indicator | Published Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US August non - farm payrolls change (seasonally adjusted, in millions) | 2.2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | | US August unemployment rate (%) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | | US August ADP employment change (in millions) | 5.4 | 6.5 | 10.4 | | US August ISM manufacturing PMI | 48.7 | 49 | 48 | [27] 3.5 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 2.2 million, lower than the expected 7.5 million. The total downward revision for June and July was 2.1 million, a smaller margin than the 25.8 - million downward revision in the single July non - farm report. The average hourly wage in August increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, also in line with market expectations [28]. - New York Fed President Williams said that if the US economy experiences a moderate increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in inflation next year as expected, the Fed may gradually lower short - term borrowing costs. He also said that the current monetary policy is at a "moderately restrictive" level, consistent with the current economic situation [28]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 993.6 kg to 1,211,723.87 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 3,711 kg to 43,335 kg [13]. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 4,226.1 kg to 16,123,066.31 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 69,413 kg to 1,265,409 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings | Metal | CFTC Speculative Fund Net Long Positions | Change Compared to Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | 244,432 contracts | 34,702 contracts | | Silver | 52,737 contracts | 8,807 contracts | [36] 3.8 This Week's Focus | Time | Specific Time | Important Economic Indicator | | --- | --- | --- | | Wednesday (September 10th) | 20:30 | US August PPI annual rate | | Thursday (September 11th) | 20:30 | US August CPI annual rate (unadjusted) | [38]