宁证期货今日早评-20250908

Group 1: Gold - The Fed's independence is challenged, and the risk of stagflation in the US increases. The market has fully priced in a September rate cut, which is the driving force for gold's rise. Gold's upward momentum may weaken in the short term but remains bullish before the rate cut is implemented [1]. Group 2: Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate is rising at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the import volume in September will remain high. The inland methanol market is strong, and the port methanol market basis is strong. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 2430 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Coking Coal - Due to the military parade, some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped or reduced production, and port customs clearance has been tightened. After the parade, supply will gradually recover, and demand will enter the peak season. The short - term price still has support [4]. Group 4: Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have increased as expected. Iron ore demand is expected to return to a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. If the recovery of molten iron production falls short of expectations, the fundamentals may weaken marginally [5]. Group 5: Rebar - Affected by the military parade, iron - water production has decreased significantly, demand has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The peak - season demand is expected to pick up, and the futures price still has support. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand [6]. Group 6: Live Pigs - The short - term market continues to show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is advisable to try to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [7]. Group 7: Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory are expected to increase in August, but exports are strong. The domestic palm oil market is trading actively, but pre - festival stocking has not started. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Group 8: Rapeseed Meal - The Ministry of Commerce has launched an anti - dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future attention should be paid to trade policies, downstream raw material inventories, and aquaculture conditions [8]. Group 9: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations is rising. The central bank's open - market trading of treasury bonds may support long - term treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to the subsequent trend of the stock market [8]. Group 10: Silver - US employment data is declining, economic downward pressure is increasing, and risk appetite is weakening, which puts pressure on silver. The short - term upward momentum of silver is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver [9]. Group 11: Soda Ash - The float glass operating rate is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The domestic soda ash market is weakening. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1300 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. Group 12: Polypropylene - Polypropylene production has declined, but overall supply remains abundant, demand is slowly picking up, and commercial inventory has increased. The market price is fluctuating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 6980 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. The Fed's rate - cut cycle may start, but it is difficult to change the supply - demand fundamentals, and oil prices will still be under pressure. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [10][12]. Group 14: Rubber - Rubber supply is in the increasing stage, but the increase is slower than expected due to rainfall. Demand is still weak. The market should be treated as fluctuating with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [12]. Group 15: PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase, the demand for weaving has slightly recovered, and orders are average. The cost side is weakening. An overall view of weak fluctuations is taken, and a strategy of shorting at high levels is recommended [13].