无利好支撑下，沪锡高位难以为继

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the US non - farm payroll data was far lower than market expectations, leading to a weaker US dollar, a decline in US stocks, an increase in economic recession expectations, and pressure on industrial product prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory has slightly increased since early August and remains at a relatively high level in the long - term. Affected by supply - side news in recent years, the price has remained high. With no obvious supply - side news recently, there is an expectation of short - term volatile decline. The strategy is to focus on high - level volatile short - selling operations for the Shanghai tin 2510 contract [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - Inventory: The LME tin inventory rose from a low of 1630 tons on August 18 to 2225 tons on September 3, still at a relatively low level. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased slightly from 7215 tons on September 1 to 7397 tons on September 5 and remains at a medium - high level in the long - term [1][2] - Demand: From February to July 2025, the apparent demand was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, especially in July when the data was higher than historical levels, showing an off - season non - off - season state. However, the spot - end price was not particularly strong, maintaining a high - level volatile rhythm [4] - Other Factors: A demonstration took place in Indonesia at the end of August, but the official statement said it did not affect the mining area's production and operation. The price soared on August 29 but quickly fell back on September 1, returning to a volatile pattern. The impact of the unrest in Indonesia on the price has subsided [6] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai tin 2510 contract price oscillated in the range of 271500 - 274500 for many days and then broke below this range on Friday night, with a weakening expectation. With no obvious positive fundamental support, the probability of further price decline increases, and attention should be paid to the volatile downward trend [7]