就业、通胀和美联储货币政策

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is currently characterized by a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][4] - The employment situation in the U.S. is showing signs of deterioration, with non-farm payrolls significantly below market expectations for two consecutive months [5][6] - The report highlights that the U.S. CPI growth rate has remained below 3% for six consecutive months, indicating manageable inflation trends [5][6] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation hierarchy is equities > commodities > bonds > cash, reflecting a bullish outlook on equities due to anticipated policy implementations [5][6] - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [3][5] - Bonds are recommended for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3][5] Market Performance - A-shares experienced a decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.81% and the CSI 300 futures down by 1.15% [12][37] - The bond market showed stability, with the ten-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.83% [12][42] - Commodity futures displayed mixed results, with coking coal futures down by 2.51% while iron ore contracts remained flat [12][37] Economic Data and Trends - The report notes that China's service trade exports increased by 15.3% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, indicating a robust service sector [18] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy policy is expected to positively impact consumer credit growth [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal policies in stabilizing the economy amid external uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff policies [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights that the electric equipment sector led gains in the A-share market, with a rise of 5.91%, while the defense industry saw a significant decline of 11.61% [37][38] - The automotive sector is projected to maintain good growth momentum, supported by policies such as "trade-in" incentives [31][39] - The report also mentions that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in major cities [31][39]