Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metals can still remain strong. Influenced by US President Trump's claim to remove Fed Governor Cook and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metals rose last Monday, with gold hitting a new all-time high and then fluctuating at a high level. In September, the market focused on the US non-farm payroll data and the interest rate decision. The significant decline in non-farm payroll data and weak employment increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which was negative for the US dollar and supported gold to reach new highs. Additionally, regional conflicts are important risks, and the safe-haven property of precious metals is strengthened. A long position approach is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Domestic Aspect - In August, China's gold reserves increased by 1.7 tons to 2098.43 tons, an increase of 34.586 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase was 20.695 tons. Foreign exchange reserves were $33221.54 billion, a month-on-month increase of $299.19 billion and a year-on-year increase of $339.39 billion [4]. - China's PMI manufacturing index in August was 49.4%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months with an accelerating expansion pace. The PMI data has been below the boom-bust line (50%) for 5 consecutive months, indicating insufficient market confidence and increasing safe-haven demand. The increase in foreign exchange reserves also poses challenges to foreign exchange management, and precious metal investment is a good option. Since November last year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has increased gold reserves for 10 consecutive months, an increase of 35.08 tons compared to October 2024, supporting the strong pattern of precious metals [10]. Foreign Macro Aspect - From a macro perspective, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7%, with an expected value of 49% and a previous value of 48%, better than the previous value but lower than the expectation. The number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 22,000 in August. Revised data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in June was revised down from 14,000 to -13,000, the first decline in non-farm payrolls since 2020. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September's interest rate decision increased significantly. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September was 0, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut was 88.3%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut was 11.7% (the probability was 0 before the data was released). The increasing expectation of an interest rate cut and the weak US dollar provided some support for precious metals [11]. Other Aspects - Currently, there is no hope of a ceasefire in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying, and NATO may intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, there is a risk of out-of-control conflict in Venezuela. Safe-haven sentiment remains an important factor that investors cannot ignore [12]. Technical Analysis Gold 2510 Contract - The outer-market London gold reached a new all-time high, reaching a maximum of $3600 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 4%. The weekly closing price of the Shanghai Shanghai Gold 2510 contract broke through the all-time high. The closing price at 15:00 on Friday was 817.52 yuan per gram, breaking through the range of 813 - 815, showing a breakthrough pattern. The night session continued to rise and broke through the recent high, maintaining a strong rhythm. Before the Fed announces the interest rate decision on September 18, the expectation of an interest rate cut still dominates the market trend, and a long position approach should be adopted [13][14]. Silver 2510 Contract - The closing price last week increased by 4.5%, reaching a maximum close to 10,000 yuan per kilogram. The night session on Friday opened high and closed low, forming a high-level oscillation pattern. Affected by the non-farm payroll data being far lower than the expected value, the US stock market declined, and commodities such as copper and oil also fell. The industrial property of silver was magnified, and its upward momentum was weak. Currently, the gold-silver ratio in the outer market is around 87.6, the lowest level since mid-July, with the possibility of a rebound and oscillation. It may be difficult for silver to show a good upward trend. In addition, before the Fed announces the interest rate decision on September 18, the probability of a sideways and slightly upward trend is relatively high, and a long position approach can be maintained in the short term [15]. Strategy - For the Gold 2510 contract, it is recommended to go long on dips. The recommended position-building range is 818 - 820, the stop-loss range is 807 - 808, the first target range is 835 - 838, and the second target range is 845 - 850 [2]. - For the Silver 2510 contract, there are two strategies: - Aggressive low-long strategy: The recommended position-building range is 9690 - 9700, the stop-loss range is 9630 - 9640. Aggressive operations should be carried out with a light position and strict stop-loss and take-profit settings [3]. - Conservative low-long strategy: The recommended position-building range is 9550 - 9580, the stop-loss range is 9450 - 9460, the first target range is 9800 - 9820, and the second target range is 9950 - 10000 [3][6].
贵金属的避险属性：降息预期下贵金属仍可偏强
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-08 14:09