豆粕、棕榈油震荡，鸡蛋走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with prices showing a range - bound oscillation. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the long - term support the price, while the current high - volume arrivals of imported soybeans, high crushing volume of oil mills, and increasing inventory limit the upward space [1][2][6]. - The palm oil market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. The slowdown in the increase of Malaysian palm oil production and strong exports support the price, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices drags down the oil market, and the market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report [1][9][11]. - The egg market rebounds weakly and then weakens again. The approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day boost the demand and egg prices, but the high inventory of laying hens, increased egg - laying rate due to temperature drop, and the release of cold - stored eggs suppress the price [1][19][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Situation: In the first week of September, soybean meal futures prices oscillated and rose, showing a range - bound characteristic. The market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the main 2601 contract oscillating between 3030 - 3080 [2][6]. - Influencing Factors: - The excellent rate of US soybeans has declined, but a high yield is still expected. The export demand is a concern, with the total sales of new US soybeans down about 29% year - on - year [3]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high. China has not purchased next - year's US soybeans but has increased imports from Brazil. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans is at a high level, supporting the price of soybean meal from the cost side [4][5]. - Oil mills maintain a high crushing volume, and the inventory of soybean meal is rising. In September, the arrival of imported soybeans is still expected to be high, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal is in a range - bound state on the daily - line level, with resistance at the upper edge of the range [7]. - Operation Strategy: For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to short - selling operations at the upper edge of the range, with the target range of 3075 - 3085, the defense reference range of 3100 - 3120, the first target of 3050 - 3060, and the second target of 3030 - 3040 [8]. 3.2 Palm Oil - Market Situation: In the first week of September, palm oil futures prices oscillated and rose. The price was boosted by strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil and a slowdown in production growth, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices limited the increase. The market is waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report [9][11]. - Influencing Factors: - In August, the production data of Malaysian palm oil was inconsistent, but the export was strong, which may limit the increase in inventory at the end of August [12]. - India's palm oil imports in August increased sharply to 99.3 tons, a 16% month - on - month increase, supporting the Malaysian palm oil futures price [13]. - The palm oil producing areas in Malaysia are affected by diseases, and Indonesia has taken measures against illegal palm plantations, which support the palm oil market [14][15]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has increased, and the demand is mainly for essential needs. Although the consumption has increased due to the approaching school opening and festivals, the demand is still limited by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [16]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates around the short - term moving average, runs far above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD is above the zero - axis, with the green column continuing [17]. - Operation Strategy: For the 2601 contract of palm oil, pay attention to long - buying operations at low prices, with the target range of 9380 - 9400, the defense reference range of 9330 - 9350, the first target of 9450 - 9480, and the second target of 9500 - 9520 [18]. 3.3 Eggs - Market Situation: In the first week of September, egg futures prices oscillated and rebounded, but the rebound space was limited, and the prices then fell back. The market is expected to continue to be weak and may test the previous low again [19][24]. - Influencing Factors: - The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 13.64 billion laying hens in August, and the new - laying pressure is large. The egg - laying rate has increased with the temperature drop, increasing the supply [19][21]. - The enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high, and the number of old hens sold has reached a two - and - a - half - month high, but the overall industry capacity reduction is not obvious [20][21]. - The seasonal demand has boosted the egg price, and the inventory in the production and circulation links has decreased [21]. - The continuous release of cold - stored eggs increases the supply pressure, suppressing the rebound space of egg prices [22]. - The demand in the peak season has improved, but the sustainability is insufficient due to the high supply pressure [23][24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs has broken through the moving - average system, the rebound is blocked, and the MACD runs far below the zero - axis, showing a weak technical pattern [25]. - Operation Strategy: For the 2511 contract of eggs, pay attention to short - selling operations, with the target range of 3020 - 3036, the defense reference range of 3076 - 3100, the first target of 2980 - 2990, and the second target of 2950 - 2960 [26].