地方债周报：关注地方债抗跌性-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in 2025, including the primary market issuance and secondary market trading, and analyzes the net financing, issuance term, issuance spread, capital investment, and trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, the issuance of local government bonds was 934 billion yuan, the repayment was 567 billion yuan, and the net financing was 367 billion yuan, showing a decrease in net financing. The newly - added general bonds were 0 billion yuan, newly - added special bonds were 178 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds were 190 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds were 564 billion yuan [1][10]. - Issuance Term: The issuance proportion of 5Y and 15Y local government bonds was the highest (26%) this week, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased compared with last week. The issuance proportions of 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds were 2%, 21%, 26%, 0.2%, and 18% respectively. The issuance proportions of 30Y and 15Y local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20Y decreased significantly [1][12]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, with a total of 1962.9 billion yuan. Jiangsu, Hunan, Guizhou, and Sichuan plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 115.5 billion yuan, and 114.8 billion yuan respectively [15]. - Issuance Spread: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.1bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 15Y local government bonds was the highest, reaching 26.6bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds narrowed, while those of other terms widened. There was significant regional differentiation, with Hebei and Henan having higher spreads and Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hubei having relatively lower spreads [2][23]. - Capital Investment of Raised Funds: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (17%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserve (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.6% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 12.0% [2][28]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed the issuance plan of local government bonds in the third quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in July, the total planned issuance in the third quarter is expected to reach 2.9 trillion yuan, with 1006.9 billion yuan planned for August. New bonds and refinancing bonds are planned to be issued 1828.9 billion yuan and 1111.1 billion yuan respectively. Beijing has disclosed that it will issue 42 billion yuan of local government bonds in October. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 3017 billion yuan, the repayment is 1089 billion yuan, and the net financing is 1928 billion yuan, an increase of 1561 billion yuan compared with this week [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spread: The secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds was relatively high this week, and the secondary spreads of 15Y, 20Y, 1Y, and 3Y local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds reached 16.9bp. In terms of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 5Y local government bonds was relatively high, reaching 45%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15Y local government bonds in medium - level regions were relatively high, and the 3Y - 5Y local government bonds in each region and the 10 - 15Y local government bonds in strong regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [6][34]. - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared with last week, and the turnover rate of Jiangsu's local government bonds was relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 367.5 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.69%. Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia had large trading volumes, with 98.4 billion yuan, 27.1 billion yuan, 25.4 billion yuan, and 21 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rate of Jiangsu's local government bonds was the highest, reaching 2.9%, higher than 1.6% in Inner Mongolia and 1.3% in Anhui [6][39].