东吴证券晨会纪要-20250909

Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][10][14] - Gold prices surged, breaking the $3600 per ounce mark, driven by concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and US rate cut expectations [1][10] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI, CPI) will set the tone for the September FOMC meeting [1][10] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the US added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with previous months' figures revised down [2][14] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor market [2][14] - The labor market is characterized by a "bizarre balance" of weak supply and demand, leading to a more pronounced decline in job additions compared to the rise in unemployment [2][14] Fixed Income Market - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [3][16] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the prior week [3][16] - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with limited downward movement in bond yields despite a significant stock market pullback [4][18] Industry Insights - Haibo Sichuang (688411) reported a strong increase in shipments and accelerated overseas growth, with revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Jing Sheng Electric (300316) is expected to benefit from new applications of silicon carbide substrates in next-generation GPUs, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - Zhongwei Company (688012) continues to expand its platform with new etching and film products, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining robust [8] - Maiwei Biotech (688062) is positioned as a leader in IL-11 monoclonal antibodies, with stable revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [9]