湘财证券晨会纪要-20250909

Macro Strategy - As of the end of August, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,222 billion USD, a month-on-month increase of 0.91%. Gold reserves reported at 74.02 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increase [2][3] - The mid-year report season for 2025 has concluded. Although the overall performance of real estate companies was not ideal, market confidence has somewhat recovered. Most real estate companies believe that the market has basically bottomed out, but the rebound strength is weak. The core theme of the industry has shifted from "scale expansion" to "survival quality" and "new model exploration" [2][3] - The public fund fee reform has been implemented, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission reducing various sales fees, estimated to benefit investors by over 50 billion CNY cumulatively, with the third phase alone providing approximately 30 billion CNY annually [3][4] Industry and Company ETF Market Overview - As of August 30, 2025, there were 1,281 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 30 from the previous period. The total asset management scale reached 5.12 trillion CNY, an increase of 529.098 billion CNY, with total shares at 28.5 trillion, an increase of 1.04905 trillion shares [5] - In August 2025, 33 new ETFs were listed, including two Hang Seng Stock Connect technology theme ETFs and 31 other ETFs. Additionally, 31 new ETFs were established, with a total issuance scale of 18.969 billion CNY [5] - The overall median return for equity ETFs in August was 11.60%, while bond ETFs had a median return of -0.21%, the worst-performing category. Cross-border ETFs had a median return of 2.25%, outperforming commodity ETFs [6] Industry ETF Rotation Strategy - The main funds are considered an important market indicator, and their net buying amount has shown strong industry allocation capabilities in A-shares. A strategy based on the net buying amount of main funds has been constructed, focusing on holding three industries at a time for optimal performance [7][8] - In August, the strategy focused on the steel, coal, and banking industries in the first half, and non-bank financials, electric equipment, and electronics in the second half. The cumulative return for the strategy in August was 9.47%, compared to 10.33% for the CSI 300 index, resulting in an underperformance of 0.87% [8] - Since 2023, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 38.14%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's return of 16.15% by 21.99% [8] Investment Recommendations - For September 2025, it is recommended to focus on the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors, corresponding to their respective industry ETFs [9]