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交银国际每日晨报-20250909
BOCOM International·2025-09-09 01:45

Core Insights - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (659 HK), highlighting its diverse and sustainable growth momentum, attractive dividend yield, and potential interest rate cuts that could enhance valuation. The target price is set at HKD 9.42, indicating a potential upside of 21.2% from the closing price of HKD 7.77 [1]. Company Overview - Chow Tai Fook's insurance business is expected to become the main profit driver in the coming years, with its Adjusted Operating Profit (AOP) contribution projected to increase from 23% in FY2024 to 34%-36% by FY2028/29, surpassing other major contributors such as toll roads [1]. - The company has maintained an adjusted EBITDA of HKD 5-7 billion over the past few years, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 35-40%. Core dividends per share are expected to reach HKD 0.65, HKD 0.68, and HKD 0.71 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, translating to dividend yields of 8.4%, 8.8%, and 9.2% based on the closing price on September 2 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue and AOP are anticipated to achieve mid-single-digit growth from FY2025 to FY2029, with a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% for revenue. AOP is expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in FY2025 and FY2026, reaching HKD 4.36 billion and HKD 4.57 billion, respectively, before accelerating to approximately 8% growth in FY2027 to FY2029 [2].