宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250909

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on both gold and copper in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday view of being range - bound but biased towards the upside [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: London gold has reached the $3600 mark, and Shanghai gold's main contract has touched the 830 mark, approaching the annual high. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the external gold price has risen from below $3400 to above the $3600 mark, breaking through the high of the shock range since the second quarter of this year. The domestic Shanghai gold has risen from 775 yuan to the 830 - yuan mark [3]. - Core Logic: The weak US non - farm payroll data in August has increased market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The market's expectation has shifted from a 50 - basis - point cut this year to a 75 - basis - point cut. Also, as the US economic downturn expectation rises, the decline in US Treasury yields is beneficial to the gold price [3]. Copper - Price Performance: Copper prices showed a narrow - range shock yesterday, and the open interest continued to decline [4]. - Core Logic: Macroscopically, the Fed's rate cut in September is approaching, and the market expects a more than 50% probability of three rate cuts this year after the non - farm data was released. However, the disappointing non - farm data has increased the expectation of an economic downturn, which is negative for copper prices. On the industrial side, China has entered the peak season, which supports the futures price. With a strong domestic and weak external macro situation and the arrival of the industrial peak season, the futures price is expected to run strongly [4].