国新国证期货早报-20250909

Report Overview - The report is the Guoxin Guozheng Futures Morning Report on September 9, 2025, covering multiple futures varieties and related market information [1] Market Performance on September 8, 2025 Stock Index Futures - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 12666.84 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.84% to 2933.25 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2418.7 billion yuan, an increase of 114.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4467.57, a rise of 7.25 [2] Commodity Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1627.2, a rise of 5.1 [3] - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1147.5 yuan, a rise of 17.4 [4] - Palm Oil: The main contract P2601 closed at 9466, a decrease of 0.63% [6] - Bean Meal: The main contract M2601 closed at 3081 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46% [9] - Live Hogs: The main contract LH2511 closed at 13305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% [10] - Iron Ore: The main contract 2601 closed at 792 yuan, a rise of 0.64% [11] - Asphalt: The main contract 2511 closed at 3440 yuan, a rise of 0.29% [11] - Logs: Opened at 800, lowest at 796, highest at 814, and closed at 807.5, with a daily reduction of 1047 lots [12] - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton [12] - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2960 yuan/ton [13] - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton [13] Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented this week. Coking plants still have profits, and those that previously reduced production due to environmental protection or temporary reasons are gradually resuming production. The daily customs clearance vehicle number at the 288 port of Mongolian coal has recovered to over 1200 vehicles. Downstream coke enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and there are many cases of auction failures or price - cut transactions in major mines in Shanxi [5] - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke has increased in the short term, iron - water production has declined, demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. However, the speculation against "involution" has heated up again, and there are still disturbances on the coal mine supply side, and the inspection of over - production still needs attention. There is an expectation of an increase in iron - water production [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Favorable prospects for sugarcane crops in India and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production over ethanol, as well as increased corn - ethanol production in the US, have restricted the upward movement of US sugar. Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Monday due to stable spot prices and technical factors, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 2, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased by 11067 lots to 85805 lots [5] Rubber - Shanghai rubber adjusted on Monday due to large short - term gains and technical factors, and fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 10,000 tons to 592,300 tons, a decrease of 1.66% [6] Bean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on September 8 due to a decline in the growth condition of US soybeans. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans as of September 7 was 64%. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1.8092 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In the domestic market, the price of bean meal is in a state of loose supply, and it may maintain a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9] Live Hogs - The price of live hogs was weakly volatile on September 8. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume in the first and middle of September increased month - on - month, suppressing the futures price. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. In the long - term, the inventory of breeding sows in July reached 103.6% of the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized, and the price will remain low [10] Shanghai Copper - Disappointing US non - farm payroll data has reduced investors' risk appetite and demand expectations, putting pressure on Shanghai copper prices. The inventory of electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate, with support at 79000 - 79400 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 80400 yuan/ton [10] Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore 2601 rose on September 8. The global iron ore shipment last week reached a high for the year, and the arrival volume also increased month - on - month. Although iron - water production has decreased significantly, the demand for iron ore is still supported due to good steel mill profits. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [11] Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt 2511 rose on September 8. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline last week, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. The demand expectation has improved, but the actual driving force is limited. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [11] Logs - The supply - demand relationship of logs has no major contradictions, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [12] Steel - After the sharp rise and fall of coking coal and coke futures on Friday, the black futures fluctuated repeatedly. With the alleviation of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel in September has improved marginally, but there is also pressure on supply expansion. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the demand in September [12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina continued to fall, and the futures and spot prices are basically matched. After the sharp decline, some smelters and traders have started to buy at low prices. The short - term negative impact of oversupply has been partially released, but the rebound space is limited, and it will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan" on the industrial field. Fundamentally, the supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating slightly. There are regional differences in demand, with better demand in central China and Shandong, and weaker demand in East China [13]