软商品日报：受助于油价抬升，棉花短期震荡偏强-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar demand has a seasonal increase due to summer cold - drink consumption, and recent sugar imports have risen significantly driven by the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, with the annual import volume expected to stay within the forecast range. However, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. Currently, cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing support for cotton prices [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Information and Quotes - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,830 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350 yuan [1]. - U.S. sugar closed at 15.64 with a change of 0.39%, and U.S. cotton closed at 66.28 with a change of 0.29% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives a seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing a bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,102.0, with a change of - 3.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,571.0, with a change of - 2.43% [2]. Data Overview - External Quotes: From September 7th to 8th, 2025, U.S. sugar rose from 15.58 to 15.64 (0.39%), and U.S. cotton rose from 66.09 to 66.28 (0.29%) [4]. - Spot Prices: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5,880 yuan (0.00% change), Kunming sugar dropped from 5,835.0 to 5,830.0 (- 0.09%), the cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280 (- 0.16%), and Xinjiang cotton remained at 15,350 yuan (0.00% change) [4]. - Price Spread Overview: There were various changes in sugar and cotton price spreads from September 7th to 8th, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 rising 28.57% and CF01 - 05 dropping 25.00% [4]. - Import Prices: The cotton cotlookA remained at 77.6 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained at 1,672.5 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 are 0.0838, 0.0825, 0.1121, and 0.1091 respectively [4]. - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts dropped from 12,476.0 to 12,102.0 (- 3.00%), and cotton warehouse receipts dropped from 5,710.0 to 5,571.0 (- 2.43%) [4].