宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250909

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - and medium - term, and a slightly weak oscillatory trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are running stably. The high - valued ore price is still prone to pressure, but the positive factor is the inventory replenishment expectation before the holiday. It is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of steel prices should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is slightly weak oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the stable fundamentals and high - level oscillation of the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are running stably. Under the influence of production restrictions, the short - term terminal consumption of ore has declined, and the subsequent recovery space of steel mill profits is limited. The positive factor is the fermentation of inventory replenishment expectation before the holiday, which supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined, and the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, mainly due to the decline in Brazil's shipments, which is not sustainable. Moreover, the domestic ore supply is recovering, and the ore supply is running stably [2].