商品日报20250909-20250909

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are trading the disappointing non - farm payroll data, fully pricing in a September Fed rate cut, with a 10% probability of a 50 - BP cut. The dollar index has fallen, and gold has reached a new high. Trump plans a "second - stage sanctions" on Russia, and the situation in Ukraine remains tense. In China, the August foreign trade data has cooled, but exports still have support in the second half of the year. The A - share market has rebounded, and the bond market is under pressure [2][3]. - Precious metals continue to rise, driven by weak US labor data and central bank gold purchases. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to a possible Fed rate cut and supply tightness. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate favorably as consumption improves marginally. Alumina prices are expected to continue to oscillate negatively, but the decline may be limited by warehouse receipts [4][6][8]. - Zinc prices are under pressure from high inventories but may be supported by seasonal demand. Lead prices are oscillating due to increased inventory and cost support. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited demand improvement. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate due to supply - demand contradictions. Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate strongly due to futures - spot resonance [13][15][16]. - Nickel prices are oscillating due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand uncertainties. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound as exports remain resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and rebound due to reduced overseas shipments and increased demand [21][22][24]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate as the US soybean good - rate is 64%, and domestic supply is sufficient. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as the early - September production in Malaysia has declined and inventory has increased slightly [27][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The market is trading the disappointing non - farm payroll data, with the probability of a 50 - BP rate cut in September rising to 10%. The dollar index has fallen to 97.3, the 10Y US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.04%, and the US stock market has reached a new high. Gold has reached a new high of 3646 dollars, and copper and oil have risen slightly. Trump plans a "second - stage sanctions" on Russia [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports and imports in US dollars have increased by 4.4% and 1.3% year - on - year respectively, both weaker than expected. The A - share market has rebounded, and the bond market is under pressure. The 10Y and 30Y bond yields have closed at 1.78% and 2.04% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures have continued to rise, with the COMEX gold futures rising 0.67% to 3677.60 dollars per ounce and the COMEX silver futures rising 0.93% to 41.94 dollars per ounce. Weak US labor data and central bank gold purchases are the main drivers [4]. 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract has oscillated narrowly, and the LME copper has found support at 9900. The spot market trading has been light. The Fed rate cut is imminent, and the Panama copper mine is about to start an environmental audit. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract has closed at 20720 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The LME aluminum has closed at 2609.5 dollars per ton, up 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate favorably [8][11]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract has closed at 2960 yuan per ton, down 0.84%. The spot price has fallen, and the theoretical import window has closed. The warehouse receipts inventory may limit the downward space [10][12]. 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract has oscillated, and the spot market trading has been average. The social inventory has increased to 15.21 million tons. Zinc prices are under pressure from high inventories but may be supported by seasonal demand [13][14]. 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract has oscillated, and the social inventory has increased to 6.77 million tons. Lead prices are oscillating due to increased inventory and cost support [15]. 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract has oscillated, and the social inventory has increased after four weeks of decline. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited demand improvement [16]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract has rebounded from a low level. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has risen to 62%, and the Sichuan - Yunnan region's operating rate has recovered limitedly. The market is in a state of supply - demand contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have oscillated strongly, and the spot price has weakened. The 2511 contract has increased in positions. Lithium prices may oscillate strongly due to futures - spot resonance [19][20]. 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices have oscillated weakly. The Indonesian APNI has lowered the September nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price. The market is in a game between policy expectations and weak reality, and prices are expected to oscillate [21]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have oscillated. The US - Venezuela conflict and the Russia sanctions are the main geopolitical risks. The market has different views on OPEC+'s production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to oscillate due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand uncertainties [22][23]. 3.13 Steel - Steel futures have oscillated. China's August steel exports have decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintained a high growth rate. The demand has rebounded slightly, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils has increased. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [24]. 3.14 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures have oscillated and rebounded. Overseas shipments have decreased significantly this week, and the demand has increased due to the resumption of production of northern blast furnaces. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [25]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract has risen 0.75%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract has risen 0.24%. The US soybean good - rate is 64%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract has risen 0.11%. The Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 5 has decreased by 6.28% month - on - month. The inventory has increased slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [29][30].