2025年8月外贸数据点评：进出口增速保持韧性

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The trade surplus reached $102.33 billion, up from $98.24 billion in the previous month[2] - Exports to the EU contributed 1.6 percentage points to overall growth, while ASEAN contributed 3.4 percentage points, both showing improvement from the previous month[4] Import Performance - Imports grew by 1.3% year-on-year, also down by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Agricultural products showed a reduced drag of 0.6 percentage points on import growth, improving by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The contribution of mechanical and high-tech products to import growth decreased by 0.2 percentage points each, indicating a weakening in these sectors[4] Product Structure and Trends - High-tech and mechanical products positively impacted export growth, contributing 4.8 and 1.5 percentage points respectively, while labor-intensive products had a negative impact of 0.3 percentage points[4] - Key products such as automobiles, integrated circuits, and ships showed enhanced performance, collectively increasing export contributions by 0.14 percentage points[4] Regional Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. negatively impacted overall growth by 5.1 percentage points, worsening by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Exports from regions like Russia, Latin America, and Africa saw a slight decline, collectively reducing their contribution by 1.8 percentage points[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11]