Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polysilicon, long - term price is likely to rise, but short - term may see a pullback after a surge. The recommended strategies are to take profit on long positions at the right time, conduct reverse arbitrage on 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy straddles to bet on volatility [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, it remains in a tight - balance state, with more upside potential in price. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips, sell out - of - the - money put options opportunistically, and participate in reverse arbitrage on 11 and 12 contracts [6][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply and demand: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 11.6 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 13 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 40 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 18 - 20 tons [4]. - Price trend: Long - term price is likely to rise, but short - term may pull back after a surge as the futures price has a premium of over 10% to the spot price and the spot price is hard to rise further [4]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: Take profit on long positions at the right time; Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on 2511 and 2512 contracts; Options: Buy straddles [5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and demand: This week, the weekly production of DMC increased by 1.04% to 4.86 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.15% to 3.14 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat at 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.7 percentage points to 55.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 9.29 tons, a 3.24% increase. The number of open furnaces decreased by 5. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 53.7 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.27 tons to 17.36 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 22.43 tons [6][25][26]. - Trading logic: It remains in a tight - balance state. Manufacturers' inventory is low, and most have strong price - holding intentions. The downstream has a higher acceptance of the price after the profit of polysilicon is repaired. The price has more upside potential. The futures price is mainly affected by market sentiment and related varieties. The silicon industry conference next week may bring some positive news [6]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options opportunistically; Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage on 11 and 12 contracts opportunistically [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Market performance: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,820 yuan/ton. Some spot prices of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [10]. - Downstream demand: The weekly production of DMC increased by 1.04% to 4.86 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.15% to 3.14 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat at 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.7 percentage points to 55.3% [13]. - Production: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 9.29 tons, a 3.24% increase. The number of open furnaces decreased by 5. The production in September is expected to exceed 39 tons [25]. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 53.7 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.27 tons to 17.36 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 22.43 tons [26]. - Product price: Some industrial silicon spot prices increased. The prices of DMC and terminal products remained stable this week [31][36]. - Intermediate data: The operating rate of the organic silicon intermediate industry increased slightly [42]. - Aluminum alloy data: The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry increased slightly [46]. - Raw material price: The prices of refined coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang increased [49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - Price trend: This week, the spot price of polysilicon increased. The prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and some components also increased [53][56][59]. - Component data: The acceptance of high - price components by domestic terminal enterprises has decreased, and the domestic orders are average with a moderately high inventory. The component production schedule in September is expected to increase slightly to 45GW [73]. - Battery data: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 7.81GW. The battery production schedule in September is expected to increase to 57GW [75]. - Silicon wafer data: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly production reached 13.78GW. The inventory is 16.85GW. The production in September is expected to be 58GW, a 6GW increase from August [80]. - Polysilicon data: This week, the polysilicon production increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 23.39 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared to August, at around 13 tons [85].
多晶硅：警惕冲高回落，工业硅：回调买入
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-09 03:05