宁证期货今日早评-20250909

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coke are healthy, and the price is expected to remain volatile [1]. - The gold market may have a reversal after the Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, and it is still bullish before that, but attention should be paid to the rhythm [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly [4]. - Short - term steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand in September should be further observed [4]. - The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are mainly weak [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [5]. - Domestic soybean prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds will continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - Silver is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Oil prices will remain under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested [10]. - The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [11]. - The asphalt market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. - Rubber should be treated as fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coke - Supply: Some coking supplies in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have decreased, and production in restricted enterprises is resuming after the parade. Other regions are operating actively, but overall production has shrunk [1]. - Demand: Steel mill production was restricted during the parade, and demand is recovering [1]. - Inventory: Coking enterprise inventories have slightly increased in some areas due to transportation disruptions. The eighth round of price increase failed, and steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Market sentiment is driven by the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. After the cut is realized, the market may reverse. It is still bullish before the cut [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased [4]. - Demand: Hot metal production is expected to increase [4]. - Inventory: 47 - port iron ore inventories are expected to accumulate. Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. Steel (Rebar) - Demand: With the end of high - temperature weather, steel demand is expected to improve in September, but supply expansion pressure exists. The market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Cost: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and cost support has weakened. Short - term prices may fluctuate narrowly [4]. Pig - Market: The live - pig price has mainly declined, with significant drops in some regions. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short the near - term contract and long the far - term contract, and farmers can hedge by selling [5]. Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September, but domestic palm oil has been arriving in large quantities [5]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. Soybean - Market: The domestic soybean market is stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. State - owned reserves are releasing old grains, and prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market: The money - market interest rate has mostly increased, and the bond market is affected by supply, demand, and the stock market. Short - term treasury bonds will fluctuate [6][7]. Silver - Influence factors: If Japan implements looser monetary policy and the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be bullish for silver. It is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to gold's influence [7]. Methanol - Supply: Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, with some plants resuming production. Import volume is expected to remain high in September [8]. - Demand: Downstream demand is stable, inventories are accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [8]. Soda Ash - Supply: Production has increased, and inventories have decreased slightly [9]. - Demand: Floating glass production is stable, but downstream demand has not improved. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Crude Oil - Supply: The market is worried about Russian sanctions, but supply is expected to increase overall [10]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Oil prices will remain under pressure in the fourth quarter [10]. Polypropylene - Supply: Production has declined slightly, but supplies are still abundant due to new capacity. Inventories are rising [11]. - Demand: Demand is slowly improving. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [11]. Asphalt - Supply: Production has increased, but supply is still restricted due to lack of quotas and device conversion [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand improvement is limited. The market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. Rubber - Supply: Supply is in the increasing period, but rainfall has affected production, and raw material prices are relatively firm [14]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and tire companies have a specific purchasing strategy. It is treated as fluctuating upward [14].