【宏观周报20250907】美联储8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降息周期开启-20250909

Employment Data - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 and down from the revised July figure of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August, marking the highest level since 2021[3] - Long-term unemployed individuals (over 27 weeks) reached 1.9 million, an increase of 385,000 compared to the previous year[3] Federal Reserve Policy - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts has become more certain, with a 25 basis point cut already priced in by the market[3] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials regarding the extent of future rate cuts remains, particularly if upcoming employment data shows a larger employment gap[3] Domestic Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.8%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity[3] - The production index rose to 50.8%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated manufacturing expansion[3] Global Economic Context - At the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months due to a slowdown in the labor market and economic growth[3] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2% year-on-year in July, indicating ongoing inflation concerns despite the Fed's tightening stance[3]