光大期货能化商品日报-20250909

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][5][7] Report's Core View - The oil price has partially digested the negative impact of the production increase, but the rebound height is constrained by the weakening demand, and it will fluctuate repeatedly. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC will also show oscillating trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and seasonal factors [1][2][3][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, oil prices stabilized slightly at a low level. OPEC+ 8 - member countries' production increase policy was stronger than expected, but the actual output increase was weaker than market expectations. The crude oil market has partially digested the negative impact of the production increase, and the oil price will fluctuate repeatedly [1] - Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals will continue to be suppressed. The prices of FU and LU are affected by the cost - end crude oil [2] - Asphalt: It showed a relatively strong performance last week. With the low - level operation and continuous decline of commercial inventory, and the expected improvement in supply - demand contradiction in September, the price may have further upward space [2] - Polyester: PX supply is recovering, and the fundamentals of TA are expected to improve. The near - month price of ethylene glycol is relatively strong, but the improvement in downstream demand in the peak season is less than expected [3] - Rubber: Overseas rubber production decreased month - on - month, and domestic imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory is being depleted, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5] - Methanol: Domestic device maintenance is frequent recently, and the supply is at a phased low. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [7] - Polyolefin: Supply will remain high, and demand is picking up. The fundamentals are not significantly contradictory, but the overall price will show an oscillating and weakening pattern [7] - PVC: Supply remains high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 8, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9] Market News - OPEC+ held an oil production meeting, and 8 member countries agreed to increase the daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in October. The OPEC Secretariat received the latest over - production compensation plans from 6 countries [11] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: Presents the historical closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025 through multiple charts [13][14][15] - Main Contract Basis: Displays the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025 [29][30][35] - Inter - period Contract Spread: Shows the historical spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical varieties [44][46][49] - Inter - variety Spread: Illustrates the historical spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy and chemical products [60][63][65] - Production Profit: Presents the historical production profit trends of some energy and chemical products [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the light - period energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75] Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [78]