棕榈油：基本面驱动不足，回调布多为主，豆油：等待南美播种季，震荡调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil lacks fundamental drivers and the strategy is to buy on dips [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a volatile adjustment phase [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,320 yuan/ton with a -0.94% change, (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 1.29% change; trading volume was 87 lots with an increase of 84 lots, and open interest was 1,138 lots with a decrease of 87 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,420 yuan/ton with a -0.43% change, (night session) 8,398 yuan/ton with a -0.26% change; trading volume was 242 lots with an increase of 132 lots, and open interest was 2,746 lots with a decrease of 242 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,930 yuan/ton with a -0.20% change, (night session) 9,839 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 200 lots with an increase of 150 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots with a decrease of 25 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,488 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% change (day session) and 0.00% change (night session) [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 51.40 cents/pound with a 0.33% change [1] 3.1.2 Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 9,350 yuan/ton with a -30 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 1 soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,740 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 4 imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,790 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 30 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 320 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was -140 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was 369 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 292 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was -1,050 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was -1,076 yuan/ton [1] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 212 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 232 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 292 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 314 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 315 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 245 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 5.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.11% month - on - month, and production decreased by 6.28% month - on - month [2] - USDA: As of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, previous week was 65%, and same period last year was 65%; pod - setting rate was 97%, previous week was 94%, same period last year was 97%, and five - year average was 97%; leaf - dropping rate was 21%, previous week was 11%, same period last year was 23%, and five - year average was 22% [3][4] - AgRural: Brazilian farmers have started planting the 2025/26 soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the sowing rate was 0.02%, while last year's sowing had not started at the same time [4] - Safras & Mercado: Predicted 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is 1.8092 billion tons, a 5.3% increase from last year's 1.7184 billion tons; new - season planting area is about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous year; average yield per unit area is expected to increase from 3,625 kg/hectare to 3,771 kg/hectare; 2026 Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 2025's 105 million tons; 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and 2025's forecast is raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons [4] - Safras & Mercado: In 2026, Brazilian soybean meal production is expected to reach 46.708 million tons, a 3% increase; exports are expected to increase by 4% to 24 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to be 20.7 million tons, an 8% increase; inventory is expected to increase by 38% to 7.295 million tons; year - end inventory is expected to decrease by 17% to 229,000 tons; soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 11.603 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 17% to 1 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 6% to 10.8 million tons, and biofuel use is expected to increase by 6% to 6.2 million tons [5] - SOPA: Urged the Indian government to raise the import tariff of vegetable oils by at least 10%, warned that low domestic prices are forcing farmers to abandon oilseed crops, soybean planting area has decreased by more than 5% this year, and market prices have been below the minimum support price; Indian government reduced the import tariff of vegetable oils including soybean oil from 20% to 10% in May 2025 to ease inflation, but the tariff of refined edible oils remained at 35.75% [6] - APK - Inform: Lowered the 2025/26 Ukrainian soybean export forecast from 3.69 million tons to 2.63 million tons and the 2025/26 Ukrainian sunflower oil export forecast from 5.7 million tons to 5.67 million tons [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [7]