东海证券晨会纪要-20250909

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in August 2025, exports from China showed a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, down from 7.2% in the previous month, while imports rose by 1.3%, down from 4.1% [7][8] - The decline in export growth is attributed to the "transshipment rush" effect, which has led to a slowdown in exports to regions outside of the US, EU, Japan, and ASEAN, while support mainly comes from the EU and ASEAN [7][8] - The report suggests that the impact of US tariffs may become less pronounced over time, with the future direction of trade largely determined by long-term fundamentals [7][8] Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector saw a decline of 5% in the index, with brokerages and insurance indices also experiencing synchronized declines of -5.3% and -4% respectively [13][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in new A-share accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a year-on-year growth of 165.2% in August, indicating strong market engagement [14] - Revisions to the capital guarantee management for insurance companies are expected to catalyze sector performance, with anticipated growth in new business value (NBV) and profits [15][16] Group 3 - Huawei led the foldable smartphone market with a shipment of 3.74 million units in the first half of 2025, capturing a 75% market share [18][20] - The demand for NAND flash memory is driven by AI applications and data center needs, leading to a price increase of over 10% announced by SanDisk [21][22] - The report anticipates that the global foldable smartphone market will see a compound annual growth rate of 7.8% from 2025 to 2029, with significant growth expected in the Chinese market [19][20]