反内卷：重塑增长逻辑与全球定价权的中国新范式

Core Insights - The anti-involution policy reconstructs China's economic growth logic through supply constraints, forming a positive cycle of "improved corporate profits → increased household income and fiscal capacity → dual upgrades in consumption and technology," ultimately driving the revaluation and internationalization of RMB assets [4][5] - The anti-involution policy promotes a shift in China's economic structure: declining savings rate, declining investment, and increasing consumption [4] - The current economic recovery is characterized as a supply recovery, with supply constraints, price improvements, and enhanced corporate profits [4] Interest Rate Structure - The anti-involution corresponds to a new interest rate structure: declining real interest rates, rising inflation, and increasing nominal interest rates [15][18] - The current decline in the savings rate means that consumption has a greater impact on the interest rate structure, where a slight increase in consumption can lead to a decrease in real interest rates [15][18] - The combination of rising inflation and declining real interest rates suggests that nominal interest rates are likely to increase [15][18] Impact on Consumption - The anti-involution policy directly affects the supply side but influences household consumption capacity and willingness through multiple transmission paths, creating a virtuous cycle [25][26] - The improvement in corporate profits directly enhances household income levels, as evidenced by the narrowing decline in industrial enterprise profits in July 2025 [25] - Government fiscal improvements enhance the ability to invest in people, with significant increases in VAT and corporate income tax revenues due to price recovery and improved corporate profits [30] Asset Revaluation - The revaluation of Chinese assets is still in its early stages, with rising nominal interest rates and a weak bond market, while the capital market's capital expenditure intensity is declining [4][35] - The stock market is expected to outperform the bond market, with a focus on core assets and a potential long-term appreciation of the RMB [4][35] Global Pricing Power - China is gradually gaining pricing power in global supply and demand due to its leading supply capabilities, shifting from a buyer's pricing marginal to a seller's pricing position [4][35] - The convergence of trade surpluses and financial account deficits indicates a potential influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market, driven by the anti-involution policy [35] Technological Impact - The anti-involution policy stimulates consumption recovery, which in turn drives demand for technological innovations and applications [36][37] - A large consumer market provides opportunities for rapid iteration and optimization of new technologies, enhancing the overall technological landscape [37]