光大期货软商品日报-20250909

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.38% to close at 66.28 cents per pound, while CF601 decreased 0.72% to close at 13,885 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 7,881 lots to 505,400 lots. In the international market, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strong and rising, the U.S. dollar index is oscillating weakly, and the center of the U.S. cotton futures price has moved slightly higher, but the upward drive is weak. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are oscillating weakly, and the market is more concerned about the pressure brought by the expected high - yield of new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton in new cotton areas is not expected to exceed 6.5 yuan per kilogram. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks clear support and is expected to oscillate at a low level. Future attention should be paid to the opening price of new cotton [2]. - Sugar: It is expected that Vietnam's sugarcane output in the 25/26 season will exceed 1.334 million tons, and sugar output will exceed 137,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.24%. The spot price quotations are stable or slightly down. The northern hemisphere's crop growth prospects are good but lack a boost, and the futures price continues to be weak and hits a new low. The domestic spot market is dominated by processed sugar, and the quotation continues to decline slightly. With future imported sugar and the opening of sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, market pressure needs to be released, and the futures price is expected to continue to bottom out. Future attention should be paid to the pre - sale of new sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: Analyzes the price trends of ICE U.S. cotton and Zhengzhou cotton futures, and the factors affecting them, including international interest rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index, and domestic new cotton production expectations [2]. - Sugar: Mentions the expected sugar production in Vietnam, spot price quotations, and the factors affecting the futures price, such as the northern hemisphere's crop situation and domestic market supply [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | Spot | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 45 | - 15 | 1543 | 107 | Xinjiang | 15350 | 0 | | | | | | | | National | 15428 | - 8 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 16 | 0 | 408 | - 4 | Nanning | 5880 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5935 | 0 | [3] 3. Market Information - Cotton: On September 8, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 139 to 5,571, with 0 valid forecasts. The market prices of cotton in different domestic regions are provided, and the load and inventory data of yarn and short - fiber cloth are also given [4]. - Sugar: On September 8, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 374 to 12,102, with 6 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) [7][10][14][17]