全球宏观策略：美国重振工业与中国反内卷

Macro Strategy - The global economy is slowing down, but U.S. industrial revival and China's anti-involution policies may drive inflation rebound, posing challenges for central banks [1][3] - The U.S. is expected to implement high tariffs, low tax rates, and trade agreements to boost domestic manufacturing, while China will moderately expand fiscal stimulus and support households [1][3] - Global bond yields may slightly decline, the U.S. dollar may weaken, stock markets could see modest gains, and commodity prices may rise moderately [1][3] United States - GDP growth is projected to slow from 2% in the first half to 1.7% in Q3 and 1.3% in Q4, with a further decline to 1.7% in 2025 [3][4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5% by year-end, indicating a weakening labor market [4] - Inflation is anticipated to rise initially, with PCE inflation increasing from 2.4% in Q2 to 2.7% in Q3, before slightly declining to 2.6% in Q4 [5][6] - The housing market is expected to remain stagnant, with potential for slight improvement following interest rate cuts [6][7] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth decreasing from 1.3% in Q1 to around 1% in the second half of the year [15][16] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.9%-5% by Q4, reflecting a weakening job market [16] - Inflation is expected to peak around 4% in September before gradually declining, with CPI growth anticipated to be 3.4% for the year [17][18] - The housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes expected to increase in Q4 due to falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts [18] Eurozone - Economic growth in the Eurozone is gradually slowing, with GDP growth expected to decline from 1.5% in Q1 to 0.8% in Q4 [27][28] - Consumer spending is anticipated to weaken slightly, influenced by a cooling job market and declining consumer confidence [28] - Fiscal policy may become moderately expansionary, focusing on defense and infrastructure spending to support economic growth [27] China - China's economy is expected to weaken slightly, with GDP growth projected to decline from 5.2% in Q2 to 4.6% in Q4 [1][3] - Deflationary pressures are expected to persist, but anti-involution policies may improve inflation expectations in the latter half of the year [1][3] - Fiscal policy is likely to expand to boost consumption, while monetary policy remains accommodative [1][3]