有色商品日报-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper had a narrow - range oscillation, while SHFE copper trended weakly. US inflation expectations in August were relatively stable, but consumer confidence in re - employment prospects reached a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 148,150 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.62 million tons to 14.69 million tons. With the approaching peak season, high copper prices led to weak downstream procurement. The poor US employment data restarted the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased concerns about a US recession, affecting the sentiment of the non - ferrous market [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,955 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decline.沪铝 trended strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,725 yuan/ton, a 0.07% increase. The aluminum alloy also trended strongly. Although there was a short - term improvement in sentiment due to environmental protection - related roasting restrictions in Shanxi and Henan, it was difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. With the increase in imports, the downward support for alumina was weak. The overall aluminum price trended strongly, and the termination of the recycled aluminum tax rebate restricted supply, making the aluminum alloy more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.65% to 15,180 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 120,860 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,196 tons to 217,614 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1,094 tons to 22,772 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable. The weekly inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, but supply increased. With the rise in raw material prices, the cost support for stainless steel became stronger. In the new energy sector, the demand for ternary materials in September weakened slightly, but the supply of raw materials was relatively tight, and prices were likely to remain strong. With the marginal improvement of ferronickel and new energy, opportunities for bottom - fishing could be considered [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The New York Fed's survey showed that US inflation expectations in August were relatively stable, but consumer confidence in re - employment reached a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. High copper prices led to weak downstream procurement. The poor US employment data affected the non - ferrous market sentiment, and the risk of a US recession needed to be monitored [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended weakly, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Environmental protection - related roasting restrictions in Shanxi and Henan improved short - term sentiment, but could not reverse the oversupply. The increase in imports added pressure. The overall aluminum price was strong, and the termination of the recycled aluminum tax rebate restricted supply [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. Inventory increased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, and supply increased. Raw material price increases strengthened cost support. New energy demand weakened slightly, but raw material supply was tight. Opportunities for bottom - fishing could be considered [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 155 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,125 tons, and domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 30 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 lead ingot remained unchanged. LME lead inventory was stable, and上期所 lead inventory decreased by 295 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Nanhai price increased by 30 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME +上期所 aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons, and alumina social inventory increased by 2.1 million tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,196 tons, and上期所 nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1,094 tons [4]. - Zinc: The SMM 0 and 1 zinc spot prices increased by 120 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium increased by 20 yuan/ton.上期所 zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons [6]. - Tin: The LmeS3 tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SMM tin spot price decreased by 2,200 yuan/ton.上期所 tin inventory increased by 207 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [51]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [51]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [52].