8月进出口点评：贸易政策不确定性有望继续下降，推动资本品出口增长

Export Performance - August exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month, indicating a significant decline in trade demand, particularly for consumer goods to the U.S.[6] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 33.1% year-on-year in August, compared to a decline of 21.7% in the same month last year, primarily driven by reduced demand for various consumer products[6]. - Exports to ASEAN and Africa maintained high growth rates of 22.5% and 25.9% year-on-year, respectively, supported by global industrial migration and capital goods exports[6]. Trade Policy and Market Dynamics - Trade policy uncertainty is expected to continue decreasing, which may help stabilize export performance in the coming months[6]. - The new tariff exemption period may mitigate the extent of year-on-year export declines in September, although overall U.S. import demand is unlikely to reverse its downward trend[6]. - The indirect trade channels are expected to play a crucial role in maintaining China's export share, particularly in intermediate goods[6]. Economic Outlook - The weakening U.S. import demand is anticipated to accelerate in the fourth quarter, particularly affecting consumer goods exports and indirect trade channels with regions like Latin America and South Korea[6]. - China's imports from the U.S. have seen a decline, suggesting that sufficient inventory levels have been established, particularly for key commodities like soybeans[6]. - The divergence between high-frequency data, such as container throughput, and actual export figures reflects China's growing role as an international logistics hub, with Shanghai Port achieving a record throughput of over 5.02 million TEUs in August[6].