银河期货丙烯期货周报-20250909

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side shows that propane has been strong recently, with prices rising in some regions, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low and market activity is average. Supply-wise, domestic propylene production started slightly decreasing this week, but is expected to recover in September as several plants are set to restart, and there are few new maintenance plans. With multiple plants scheduled to be put into production in Q3, the propylene market will become more relaxed. Downstream demand provides relatively stable support, but overall profits are not good, and the ability to accept propylene prices is gradually decreasing. The trading strategy suggests a low-level oscillation for single-side trading, closing the PL01 - 02 reverse spread for arbitrage, and taking a wait-and-see approach for options [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Comprehensive Analysis: Propane is strong on the cost side, with some regional price increases and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic propylene production started slightly decreased this week, but is expected to rise in September. Multiple plants are set to be put into production in Q3, increasing supply and relaxing the market. Downstream demand has stable support but poor profits, and the ability to accept propylene prices is declining [5]. - Trading Strategy: Single-side trading should expect low-level oscillation; close the PL01 - 02 reverse spread for arbitrage; take a wait-and-see approach for options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking - This Week's Market Review: Propylene futures oscillated narrowly at a low level this week, with the main 2601 contract oscillating between 6360 - 6440. The mainstream price of the propylene market moved up overall, with the mainstream price in the Shandong market at 6590 - 6620 yuan/ton as of Friday, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Propane has been strong recently, with the CIF price of East China frozen propane at 596 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6 US dollars/ton. The CFR price of Far East propylene in China is 790 - 795 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [12]. - Propane Import and Supply: The CIF price of propane imports increased this week. High prices have led to downstream wait-and-see attitudes, and purchasing enthusiasm remains low. Market activity is average. Next week, imported resources will arrive successively, and the tight supply situation at some terminals may gradually ease [13]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: As of Thursday, the overall domestic propylene capacity utilization was 76.02%, a week-on-week increase of 0.27%. The gas fractionation unit of Hualian Petrochemical restarted this week, and several other plants such as Wanhua Chemical, Hebei Haiwei, Dongming Petrochemical, and Zhenhua Petrochemical will restart from early to mid-September. There are few new maintenance plans in September, so propylene production is expected to increase [15]. - Import and Export: Propylene imports mainly flow to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, Sino-US tariffs caused instability in some downstream PDH plants, leading to increased imports from May to July. South Korea is the largest source of propylene imports, accounting for 67.67% [17]. - Production Profit: Most downstream propylene product prices decreased this week, and the cost pressure on downstream products is increasing. The ability to accept propylene prices is gradually decreasing. Most downstream products have poor profits, remaining below the break-even line. Only octanol is currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability [28]. - Related Price Spreads: The document provides data on various propylene-related price spreads such as PL01 - 02 month spread, PP01 - PL01, PL01 - PG01, and PL01 - 3MA, but no specific analysis is given [30].