周度经济观察：出口和股市或将延续强势-20250909

Export Performance - In August, China's export growth rate was 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from July[4] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 33.1%, contributing a 1.7 percentage point drag on overall export performance[4] - Exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN showed broad increases, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[4] Economic Outlook - The global manufacturing PMI data indicates a stable growth center without a clear downward trend, suggesting continued strength in manufacturing sectors[2] - The expectation of a stable US-China trade relationship and a weak dollar environment may support China's export growth in the second half of the year[5] - The average import growth rate for China this year is -2.2%, reflecting weak domestic demand, with August imports showing a 1.3% year-on-year increase[6] US Labor Market and Monetary Policy - The US added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market[14] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the labor participation rate increased to 62.3%, both suggesting a weakening job market[16] - Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have risen, with projections indicating three rate cuts in 2025, totaling around 70 basis points[17] Market Trends - The equity market remains volatile, with sectors like TMT and military industries cooling off, while small-cap stocks are gaining attention due to favorable liquidity conditions[9] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure on yields, influenced by regulatory changes and market adjustments[12] - Overall, the financial system's active credit expansion is a key source of market liquidity, supporting equity market performance[10]