2025年9月基金投资策略：保持乐观谨慎，切勿“追涨杀跌”

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a cautiously optimistic outlook for global economic performance, highlighting the need to avoid "chasing highs and cutting losses" in asset allocation [1][17] - Key investment directions for September 2025 include focusing on strong service sector performance overseas, improving domestic economic fundamentals, and monitoring commodity impacts from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and seasonal industry trends [1][17] Market Review - As of August 31, 2025, global equity assets showed strong performance, with MSCI Global returning 2.36% and domestic markets, such as the CSI All Share Index, achieving a return of 10.74% [8][14] - The domestic bond market remains stable despite increased volatility, with the CSI All Bond Index rising 0.41% year-to-date [8][14] Market Outlook Overseas Market - The service sector is expected to continue driving economic demand expansion, with strong performance noted in the U.S. service sector PMI at 54.5 in August, up from 55.7 in July [19][18] - Despite positive trends, caution is advised due to structural valuation risks in U.S. equities and the potential for increased credit risk [20][18] Domestic Market - The domestic economy shows resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by consumption and exports [25][27] - Industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year in July, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% [25][27] - Consumer retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, indicating improving consumer sentiment [27][29] Asset Allocation Strategy Equity Funds - A "core + opportunity" strategy is recommended, focusing on high certainty in earnings, profits, and dividends, particularly in large-cap and dividend-focused funds [3] - Caution is advised regarding short-term volatility, especially in sectors driven by policy and technology [3][38] Fixed Income Funds - Short to medium-duration bonds are favored for better risk-reward profiles, with financial and interest rate bonds recommended for conservative investors [3] QDII Funds - Attention should be paid to the interplay of demand, policy, and expectations, particularly in sectors like AI and new energy, which are expected to drive economic growth [4][22]