Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering the traditional peak season, it is necessary to focus on the physical volume of infrastructure projects and policy stimulus on the consumer side. After the introduction of the steady - growth plan, the decline of steel prices is expected to be limited, and the upside space depends on demand [7]. - In August, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly but remained below 50%; the construction business activity index continued to decline. Fundamentally, the steel production profit decreased significantly, and combined with military parade - related production restrictions, steel supply is expected to weaken slightly. On the demand side, for building materials, it remains to be seen whether special bonds can be converted into physical infrastructure work; for coils, new orders and raw material inventories in the PMI have strengthened slightly, providing some support for demand. In terms of inventory, steel has been continuously accumulating, and the pressure on rebar warehouse receipts is extremely high [12]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - Core Logic: The manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly but was still below 50%, and the construction business activity index declined. Steel production profit decreased, and supply may weaken. Rebar demand is weak, while coil demand has support. Steel inventory is accumulating, and it is necessary to focus on demand changes and the inventory - reduction inflection point [12]. - Market Situation: In August, steel prices fluctuated weakly. Rebar prices dropped by about 100 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices dropped by about 30 yuan/ton. The closing price of rebar contract 10 on August 29 was 3090 yuan/ton, a 3.59% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of rebar at the end of August was 180 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The closing price of hot - rolled coil contract 10 on August 29 was 3355 yuan/ton, a 1.03% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of hot - rolled coil at the end of August was 34 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. Steel futures positions increased slightly, and trading volume decreased. The hot - rolled coil futures price curve shifted from Contango to Back [12]. - Spread: As of August 29, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2302.5 yuan/ton, a 123.5 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.92, a 0.19 decrease compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (contract 10) was 265 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase compared to the end of April [12]. - Supply: In August, the iron - making cost increased, but steel mills still had profit margins, and production remained at a high level of 240 million tons per day. The weekly production of rebar in sample steel mills was about 2.2 million tons, an increase compared to July, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was about 3.2 million tons, with some molten iron flowing to hot - rolled coils in August [12]. - Demand: Rebar demand weakened, with some support from infrastructure; coil demand had support. The average weekly apparent demand for rebar in August was 2 million tons, a decrease compared to July and basically the same as the same period last year. The apparent demand for coils was maintained at 3 - 3.2 million tons per week, a slight decline compared to July but higher year - on - year. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises in August remained above 60%, but the profit margin decreased [12]. - Inventory: Rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate inventory, with significant pressure on rebar inventory. As of the week of August 29, the rebar mill inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a 74,700 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a 696,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 796,800 tons, a 3800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 2.8578 million tons, a 171,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [12]. - Strategy: Steel is expected to fluctuate. The range of rebar contract 01 is [3050 - 3200], and the range of hot - rolled coil contract 01 is [3250 - 3400] [12]. 02 Macro Level - Macro News: Internationally, the market expects the Fed to start an interest - rate cut cycle. Domestically, the PMI in August rebounded month - on - month, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises shrank, but the profits of the steel industry increased significantly year - on - year [14]. - Event Interpretation: The introduction of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" implies that with production volume control, steel prices may increase. Attention should be paid to supply and demand. The "production - reduction regulation" is expected to be mainly through administrative means. In the short term, the plan is expected to have limited impact on steel prices, but it can support steel prices in the second half of the year, and the upside space depends on demand [17]. 03 Spot and Basis - Steel Price: In August, steel prices fluctuated weakly. Rebar prices dropped by about 100 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices dropped by about 30 yuan/ton. Due to the construction off - season, construction PMI declined, and the demand for building materials was limited. The downstream demand for coils was higher than that for building materials, but the price increase was difficult [20]. - Rebar Futures: The closing price of rebar contract 10 on August 29 was 3090 yuan/ton, a 3.59% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of rebar at the end of August was 180 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The rebar futures showed a "first - oscillate, then - decline" trend in August. The weak demand at the finished - product end and high supply pressure affected the price [22]. - Rebar Futures Positions and Volume: In August, the unilateral positions of rebar futures remained around 3 million lots, and at the end of the month, it was 3.17 million lots, a 230,000 - lot increase compared to the end of July. The weighted trading volume in August was 37.3 million lots, a 17.95 - million - lot decrease compared to July [24]. - Rebar Inter - period Spread: The rebar price curve became steeper, and the curve center moved down. The 5 - 10 spread of rebar at the end of August was 118 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the 10 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July [28][31]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: As of August 29, the closing price of hot - rolled coil contract 10 was 3355 yuan/ton, a 1.03% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of hot - rolled coil at the end of August was 34 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil price decline was lower than that of rebar due to relatively strong demand [35]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures Positions: In August, the unilateral positions of hot - rolled coil futures first decreased and then increased slightly. As of August 29, it was 2.28 million lots, a 20,000 - lot increase compared to the end of July [38]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inter - period Spread: The hot - rolled coil futures price curve shifted from Contango to Back, and the curve center moved down. The 5 - 10 spread became positive, and as of August 30, it was - 3 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the 10 - 1 spread was 9 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the end of July [41][43]. 04 Spread - Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio: As of August 29, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2302.5 yuan/ton, a 123.5 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.92, a 0.19 decrease compared to the end of July. In August, the iron ore main contract rose 1.09%, causing the rebar - iron ore ratio to decline [47]. - Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread: As of August 29, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (contract 10) was 265 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase compared to the end of April. The spread widened due to differences in downstream demand [50]. 05 Supply - Steel Production: In August, the weekly production of five major steel products was about 8.7 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar in sample steel mills was about 2.2 million tons, an increase compared to July, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was about 3.2 million tons, with some molten iron flowing to hot - rolled coils [54]. - Regional Rebar Production: Rebar production increased in East and South China but decreased in North China. The rebar inventory in Hangzhou continued to accumulate, and the pressure on warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port was extremely high [58]. - Rebar Production Process: The long - process rebar weekly production was about 1.89 million tons, basically the same as in July. The short - process rebar weekly production was about 300,000 tons, an increase of about 50,000 tons per week compared to July [61]. - Blast Furnace Iron - Making: In August, the iron - making production of 247 steel enterprises remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day, and the blast furnace operating rate was above 83% [64]. - Electric Furnace Production: In August, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnace steel mills was about 75%, and the scrap consumption was 2.6 - 2.65 million tons per week. The scrap inventory remained at about 5 million tons, basically unchanged month - on - month [66]. - Cost: In August, coke prices increased in three rounds. By the end of the month, the含税 cost of molten iron in Hebei was 2530 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The scrap price at the end of August was 2395 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase compared to the previous month. The iron - scrap spread strengthened [67]. 06 Demand - Steel Demand: In August, the average weekly apparent demand for rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease compared to July and basically the same as the same period last year. The apparent demand for coils was maintained at 3 - 3.2 million tons per week, a slight decline compared to July but higher year - on - year [70]. - Steel Mill Profitability: In August, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60%, but it continued to decline slightly. After the seventh round of coke price increases, steel mill profits decreased, but there was still some profit margin [73]. - Steel Production Profit: The rebar production profit decreased gradually in August. The profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar on August 29 was 33 yuan/ton, a 194 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil gross profit decreased, and the cold - rolled coil gross profit turned negative [76][81]. - Construction Industry Demand: In August, the cement shipment volume decreased year - on - year. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous month. The concrete and asphalt sales in infrastructure were relatively strong [85][88]. - Manufacturing Industry Demand: In September 2025, the combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 7.2% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line [91][97]. 07 Inventory - Steel Inventory: In August, the social inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, and the mill and social inventories were close to the same period last year. As of the week of August 29, the mill inventory of five major steel products was 4.215 million tons, a 119,800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 10.4638 million tons, a 1.0401 - million - ton increase compared to the end of July [101]. - Rebar Inventory: The rebar mill inventory was basically flat, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period last year. As of the week of August 29, the rebar mill inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a 74,700 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a 696,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [104]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: The hot - rolled coil mill and social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, and the inventory level was low. As of the week of August 29, the hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 796,800 tons, a 3800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 2.8578 million tons, a 171,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [107].
钢材9月报：钢价下方有支撑，上方看旺季需求-20250909
Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-09-09 06:21