氧化铝、电解铝9月报：“反内卷”情绪消退但预期仍存，氧化铝跌幅有限；宏观支撑较强，但铝锭持续累库，电解铝震荡运行-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to remain range - bound in September. The influence of the rainy season in Guinea persists, but bauxite supply is sufficient. The supply - surplus pattern of alumina will continue as production profits are considerable, and the demand has reached its peak. The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, but the expectation still exists [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to move in a volatile manner. The rainy season in Guinea affects ore mining and transportation, but alumina remains in surplus. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is close to the "ceiling", and downstream demand is weak due to the off - season. With the expected Fed rate cut in September, the aluminum price may oscillate, with attention paid to the resistance level of 20,800 for the main - continuous contract [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina: Supply is in surplus as bauxite supply is sufficient despite the Guinea rainy season, and production profits are good. Demand is at a high level. As of August 29, alumina inventory was 431.6 million tons, up 6.65% year - on - year. In September, it may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply remains strong with high - level production capacity and limited future increments. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season. As of August 29, electrolytic aluminum inventory was 61 million tons, returning to a medium level in the past six years. In September, prices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 20,800 resistance level [6]. 3.2 Bauxite Supply Situation Review and Outlook - Domestic Production: In July, China's bauxite production was 5.77 million tons, up 3.22% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased slightly [9]. - Imports: In July, imports rose again, with the cumulative import volume from January to July reaching 123 million tons, up 33.88% year - on - year. Due to the rainy season, future imports may decline [14]. - Country - wise Shipment: In July, shipments from Australia to China continued to rise, while those from Guinea decreased monthly, with July's shipment at 5.3725 million tons, down 39.52% year - on - year. Port inventory growth has weakened, and as of August 29, it was 28.65 million tons, at a moderately high level in the past six years [18]. 3.3 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - Production Profit and Capacity Utilization: In July, the production cost of alumina rose slightly to 2,844.9 yuan/ton, and the profit dropped to about 345 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi increased [23][24]. - Production Volume: In July, global metallurgical - grade alumina production was 12.95 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, and China's was 7.724 million tons, up 8.9% year - on - year, both at the highest levels in the past six years [29]. - Net Exports: In July, China maintained a net - export status of alumina, with the net import volume in June at - 1.035 million tons, down 36.01% year - on - year, at the lowest level in the past six years [34]. - Inventory: Since the beginning of the year, alumina inventory has been accumulating due to sufficient raw materials and high production. As of August 29, it was 431.6 million tons, up 6.65% year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Situation Review and Outlook - Cost and Profit: In July, the alumina price increased, but the electrolytic aluminum production cost dropped to 15,932 yuan/ton, and the profit rose to 4,775 yuan/ton [42]. - Production Volume: In July, global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.373 million tons, up 2.71% year - on - year, and China's was 3.778 million tons, up 2.49% year - on - year, at a high level in the past six years [46]. - Imports: In August, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum oscillated downward and then rebounded to above 7.96 by August 29. In July, imports reached 5.183 million tons, at the highest level in the past six years [51]. - Inventory: In July, the molten - aluminum ratio decreased to 70.78%. In August, social inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 61 million tons by August 29, at a medium level in the past six years. LME inventory also increased in August, but its support is weakening [54][57]. 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - Downstream Industry Start - up Rates: In July, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 43.63% due to the real - estate slump and the off - season, and that of aluminum sheets and strips dropped to 69.41% [61][62]. - Exports: Affected by trade barriers, the exports of most aluminum products were weak. From January to July, the cumulative exports of aluminum profiles, sheets, and foils decreased year - on - year, while those of aluminum cables increased by 33.15% [66][71]. - Real Estate: From January to July, the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, the construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year, with an expanding decline [76][81]. - Automobiles: From January to July, the cumulative automobile production was 18.211 million vehicles, up 12.59% year - on - year. In July, the production - sales ratio dropped to 1.0009. For new - energy vehicles, the cumulative production from January to July was 8.2121 million vehicles, up 38.48% year - on - year, and the production - sales ratio in July dropped to 1.0153 [85][90]. - Home Appliances: From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of three major white - goods increased at different rates. Refrigerator production increased by 3.55% year - on - year, air - conditioner by 6.05%, and washing - machine by 10.12%. Sales of refrigerators increased by 3.83% year - on - year, air - conditioners by 7.63%, and washing - machines by 9.48% [95]. - Photovoltaic: In July, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6 GW, up 50.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative new - installed capacity was 223.25 GW, up 80.73% year - on - year, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate [99].