银河期货每日早盘观察-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the decline in US soybeans reflects demand - side impacts, with limited downside space. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space due to cost support. In the domestic market, high soybean arrivals lead to supply pressure and inventory pressure on bean meal [2][5][7]. - For sugar, globally, with Brazil's supply peak, inventory is expected to accumulate, and there is a high expectation of sugar production increase, with prices likely to fall further. In the domestic market, low domestic sugar inventory is offset by large - scale imports, and potential policy relaxation may put some pressure on sugar prices [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and inventory in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. Short - term oil prices are in a correction, and there may be opportunities to go long after the correction [18][19]. - For corn/corn starch, US corn futures are rising, and there is room for a rebound. In the domestic market, supply is tight, but prices in North China are falling, and the 01 corn contract may still decline [20][25]. - For hogs, although the supply pressure has decreased, high inventory and large出栏 weights still put downward pressure on prices [31]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation, and there is an expectation of increased production [33][36]. - For eggs, the supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the supply - surplus situation remains. There is an expected increase in demand in September, and prices may rise slightly [44]. - For apples, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, but the low premium fruit rate may lead to high initial prices. The short - term futures market is expected to be slightly strong [51][52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The demand in the peak season is expected to have limited impact on prices, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly weak [59]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - Market Conditions: CBOT soybean index rose 0.81% to 1051.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT bean meal index rose 0.56% to 288.7 dollars/short ton [2]. - Relevant Information: As of September 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64% (down from 65% the previous week). As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 452151 tons. In the first week of September 2025, Brazil shipped 100.6 tons of soybeans, with a daily average of 20.12 tons/day, a 30.81% decrease from September 2024. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 230.39 tons, with an operating rate of 64.76%. Soybean inventory was 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week [2][3][4]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on the far - month contracts of bean and rapeseed meal at low prices, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [8]. Sugar - Market Conditions: ICE US raw sugar rose 0.06 (0.39%) to 15.64 cents/pound, and London white sugar rose 1.6 (0.33%) to 481.1 dollars/ton [9]. - Relevant Information: In the 2024/25 season, Vietnam's sugar production reached over 126.6 tons, a 14.2% increase. Copersucar acquired Raizen's assets, increasing its annual sugar - cane processing capacity by nearly 9 million tons. Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year [10][11]. - Trading Strategies: Go short on Zhengzhou sugar at high prices in the range, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [13]. Oils - Market Conditions: CBOT US soybean oil changed by 0.16% to 51.40 cents/pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 0.88% to 4488 ringgit/ton [16]. - Relevant Information: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 6.28% compared to the same period last month. As of September 7, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 5, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 tons, a 1.51% increase from last week, and the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 125.13 tons, a 1.01% increase [16][17]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on oils after the correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Conditions: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract rising 1.1% to 421.5 cents/bushel [20]. - Relevant Information: In the first week of September 2025, 129.74 tons of corn were shipped, with a daily average of 25.95 tons/day, a 15.15% decrease from September 2024. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4% [21]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on the December US corn contract on dips, go short or wait and see for the 01 corn contract, wait and see for arbitrage and options [26][27][28]. Hogs - Market Conditions: Hog prices in all regions showed a downward trend [30]. - Relevant Information: On September 8, the national average wholesale price of pork rose 1.3% to 20.10 yuan/kg [31]. - Trading Strategies: Go short on the near - month contracts at high prices, conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [32]. Peanuts - Market Conditions: The average price of national peanut kernels was stable at 4.23 yuan/jin [33]. - Relevant Information: Oil mills'开机 rates were low, and the demand for pressing was small. Peanut oil prices were stable, and peanut meal was in short supply. As of September 4, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased [33][35]. - Trading Strategies: The 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, go long on the 05 peanut contract with a light position, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [37][38][39]. Eggs - Market Conditions: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas rose to 3.36 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas to 3.44 yuan/jin [42]. - Relevant Information: In August, the inventory of laying hens increased, and the number of egg - chick hatchings decreased. In the week of September 4, the number of culled hens decreased, and the average culling age was 495 days. As of August 28, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas increased [43]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see for all trading strategies [45][47]. Apples - Market Conditions: As of September 3, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from last week [48]. - Relevant Information: In July, apple exports increased by 44.95% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 5.73% month - on - month. The trading of early - maturing apples is coming to an end, and the supply of high - quality late - maturing apples is limited [48][49]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on the new - season apple contract at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options [53][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Conditions: ICE US cotton rose 0.19 (0.29%) to 66.28 cents/pound [55]. - Relevant Information: As of September 6, the Indian cotton planting area was 10.877 million hectares, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of September 7, the US cotton boll - opening rate was 40%, and the harvest progress was 8%. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - cotton listing volume increased by 9% year - on - year [56][57]. - Trading Strategies: Go short on Zhengzhou cotton at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options [59].