钢材：复产进行时

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Neutral [3] - Scrap steel: Bullish [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market fluctuated and consolidated last week. Hot metal production declined significantly but remained positive year-on-year. Northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, with hot metal expected to rise significantly next week. Rebar production fell, inventories increased substantially, and apparent demand declined. Hot-rolled coil production dropped sharply, inventories increased month-on-month, and apparent demand decreased significantly. The total output of five finished steel products decreased month-on-month, inventories continued to accumulate, and demand declined month-on-month. Long-process steel mill profits continued to narrow, with some mills incurring losses. Short-process steel mills had losses during off-peak hours. The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal production and the resumption of exports [3]. - The month spread structure is contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market feedback indicates that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the later period, and attention should be paid to delivery [3]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 61.04%, a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - According to calculations, current on-peak production at East China EAF plants results in a loss of 222 yuan per ton of steel, and off-peak production results in a loss of 95 yuan per ton [3]. - The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory remains at a low level. Rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level, and billet inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of September 8, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.2884 million tons, a significant month-on-month decline of 112,900 tons but still showing positive year-on-year growth. Northern steel mills have resumed production one after another, and attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal [12]. - According to Mysteel research data, the national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises this week was 80.4%, a slight month-on-month decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 55.74% [12]. - This week, the total output of five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons, a decrease of 239,600 tons compared to last week. Among them, rebar production was 2.1868 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons compared to last week. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.1424 million tons, a significant decrease of 105,000 tons compared to last week. Cold-rolled production increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate production decreased significantly, both significantly higher than historical levels [20]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major steel products this week was 8.2783 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 299,400 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.021 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 21,400 tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.0536 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 153,600 tons [40]. - Cement direct supply decreased slightly. This week's trading volume decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while the trading volume in the south decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the East China region was relatively stable but significantly lower than the same period last year [40][54]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 596,800 tons, continuing to accumulate month-on-month and significantly higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.4215 million tons, increasing month-on-month and slightly lower than the same period [67]. - The total inventory of five major steel products, including both steel mills and social inventories, is increasing [55]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts are continuously increasing and are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market feedback indicates that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts remain at a low level, a historical low for the same period [105].