海外札记0908：衰退降息叙事浮现，看好黄金相对表现

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of recession risk, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[1] - Employment data indicates a potential shift towards recession characteristics, with negative job growth and a declining employment demand-supply gap[1][10] Interest Rate Expectations - A major interest rate cut cycle is anticipated, shifting from preventive to recession-driven cuts, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September[2][15] - Current market expectations for rate cuts from now until the end of 2026 are around 150 basis points, which may increase if employment continues to weaken[2][15] Gold Investment Strategy - Gold is expected to benefit from the recession and interest rate cut narrative, serving as a hedge against potential economic downturns[3][19] - The weakening U.S. dollar due to ongoing rate cuts is likely to support gold prices, as it enhances the appeal of dollar-denominated assets[3][19] Risk Factors - Economic uncertainty, including employment and consumption dynamics, poses risks to the outlook[4][24] - Geopolitical tensions and tariff policy uncertainties could further impact market sentiment and economic stability[4][24]