PVC周报：低估值的支撑-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral, with some aspects having a neutral - to - bullish or neutral - to - bearish tendency [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain has seen double inventory accumulation, increasing pressure on PVC. The futures price will continue to return to fundamental pricing, but the valuation is already low [3] - The 1 - 5 month spread of PVC futures is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - The raw material support is neutral. The production of calcium carbide has slightly increased and stabilized, with the price of Wuhai calcium carbide at 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke medium - grade material at 660 yuan/ton, also stable [3] - The supply side shows a neutral trend, with domestic PVC production increasing. The overall operating rate of PVC powder is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [3] - The demand side is neutral - to - bearish. The operating rate of downstream products is at a low level. Exports were good in July, but the Indian tariff has been implemented. The industry chain has double inventory accumulation [3] - The profit situation is neutral - to - bullish. The profit of single - PVC is at a low level, and the comprehensive profit is weakening. The profit per ton of calcium - carbide integration is - 562 yuan, that of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, the North China comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the double - ton price difference is 3,129 yuan [3] - The macro environment is neutral. The probability of an interest - rate cut in September has increased, and some domestic regions have introduced new real - estate policies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide - Lanthanum coke production has declined. The operating rate of sample enterprises is 54.87%, a 1.83 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The price of Shenmu medium - grade material is 660 yuan/ton, the same as last week [6] - Calcium carbide supply has slightly decreased. The operating rate has dropped 0.59 percentage points to 71.91%, and the overall operating rate is at a relatively low level. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12][13] 3.2 PVC Production - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [18] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - The operating rate of downstream products is low. The operating rate of pipes is 33.48% (- 0.13%), and that of profiles is 38.39% (- 4.21%), both lower than the same period last year [26] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory has increased. The social inventory is 83.79 million tons, an increase of 1.89 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of East China samples is 78.94 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons, and the inventory of South China samples is 4.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons [29] - The upstream factory inventory has also increased. The factory inventory is 27.12 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from the previous period [29] - The industry - chain inventory has accumulated [29] 3.5 PVC Profit - The loss of calcium - carbide integration has slightly widened. The profit of Xinjiang integration is 637 yuan/ton, and that of northwest integration is - 1,145 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased calcium - carbide method has declined. The profit per ton of the northwest externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 562 yuan, and that of the North China externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased ethylene method has decreased. The profit of East China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton, and that of North China's ethylene - based method is 504 yuan/ton, weaker than last week [38] - The comprehensive profit is weakening. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, and the Shandong comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference has slightly decreased to 3,129 yuan/ton [46] 3.6 Import and Export - From January to July, PVC exports increased year - on - year. The export volume of PVC powder from January to July was 2.29 million tons, an increase of 831,000 tons (+ 57%), with strong exports in July. The import volume of PVC powder from January to July was 148,700 tons, basically the same as last year [51] - From January to July, the cumulative export of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.15% [54] 3.7 Related Commodities - Since 2024, the demand in the real - estate industry has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the operating rate is at a low level [59] 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures price is fluctuating weakly. The 01 contract has dropped from 4,949 last week to 4,913 at yesterday's close [70] - The 1 - 5 month spread is fluctuating. The 1 - 5 month spread is - 310 [70] - The number of registered warehouse receipts continues to increase. On September 5, the number of warehouse receipts was 90,000, an increase of 5,940 from last week [70] 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, demand, import, and other data of PVC from January 2025 to December 2025, with fluctuations in production and demand year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year [72]