碳酸锂延续去库，锂价仍待企稳确认

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium market showed mixed trends. The lithium ore news was calm, with increased shipments from Australian mines in September and potential further increases from African mines. Lithium salt production increased slightly, but the smelter's available inventory declined rapidly. The demand was boosted by a significant increase in energy - storage orders, and spot procurement was active. The lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic Sales: From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to August, the cumulative wholesale was 8.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 34%. The power cell production increased significantly in August, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 47% to 748.5GWh from January to August. [13] - Overseas Markets: From January to June 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. The US sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and the European sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million. The US will cancel the IRA subsidy for new energy vehicles on September 30, which may stimulate pre - delivery exports. [18] 1.2 Energy - Storage Market - In June 2025, the domestic newly commissioned new - type energy - storage project installed capacity was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, with year - on - year and month - on - month declines. In the first half of 2025, the national new - type energy - storage installed capacity reached 94.91GW/222GWh, a growth of about 29%/32% compared to the end of 2024. The new installed capacity increased by over 62% year - on - year. The "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia supported the energy - storage demand. From January to August, the cumulative production of Chinese energy - storage cells was 302.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 59%. [23] 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling in August - In August, the production scheduling of 6 battery enterprises was 110.3GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The production scheduling of 6 cathode enterprises was 147,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. It is expected that the orders will increase by 5 - 10% month - on - month during September - November. [28] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - From January to August, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 596,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40%. The production scheduling for September was 86,700 tons. However, due to the shutdown of a top - tier mine in Jiangxi and the reduction of mica smelter production, along with the decrease in processing profit after the price drop, the domestic lithium carbonate production in September is expected to be lower than the scheduling and August's output. [32] 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply in August and September - From January to July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. From January to August, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased by 3% year - on - year to 151,000 tons, with a 14% decrease in lithium carbonate and a 127% increase in lithium sulfate. [41] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, mainly presented in graphical form. 3.2 Continuous Lithium Carbonate Inventory Reduction with Expanding Magnitude - Lithium carbonate production has shifted to reduction and inventory clearance. The proportion of customer - supplied materials has decreased, and spot procurement has increased significantly. The smelter's inventory is low, mostly pre - sold. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly, actually locking the spot into the futures. [49] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: This week, the lithium price rebounded with increased positions, showing signs of stabilization. Pay attention to whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average for further rebound [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options on the 2511 contract [5].